Author: azeeadmin

28 Apr 2020

Celonis pushes beyond process mining into automated workflow tooling

Celonis has made its name as a process discovery company, helping companies understand the way work flows through its systems to expose inefficiencies, but up until now the company has left it to others to solve those problems. Today it announced the first products that help companies improve those workflows automatically.

Alexander Rinke, founder and CEO at Celonis, says customers have been asking the company to go beyond process discovery to something that really helps solve the problems and bottlenecks they were finding.

“Where customers were really pushing us is to take the company from a software that’s showing you all the insights around your business processes, where the friction points are, where things aren’t going as they should be going…” he told TechCrunch.

To that end, the company acquired Banyas last year to give it a way to connect to internal ERP systems more easily, as they were thinking about how to create some process improvement automation apps. The Banyas acquisition gave the company some tools to start thinking about this more deeply.

“We put all of this together — the intelligence, the action, the automation and we solve business goals for certain departments,” Rinke said.

For starters, that involves supply chain and finance, but there are plans for building even more applications this year and beyond. The way it works for starters, is it connects to the company’s transactions systems, whether that’s SAP or Oracle or something similar. This is where the Banyas acquisition really comes into play,

“You can basically put these applications on top of your transaction systems and tell them which business goals you have — like I want to preserve cash or I want to pay on time — and then we analyze the enterprise’s entire processes towards these business goals, and then drive everything, automate things towards these business goals intelligently,” he said.

In addition to the two apps, the company is also announcing that it’s making the platform that the engineering team used to build these apps more broadly available to allow third parties to build their own apps on top of Celonis, and then they will be able to share them in an app marketplace.

If you’re thinking this is moving Celonis into Robotic Process Automation (RPA), Rinke disagrees As he sees it, RPA is about automating all-computer processes. He says the Celonis solutions often have human stopping points in a process, and he sees that as a big difference.

Celonis was founded in 2011 and has raised more than $367 million, according to Crunchbase data. Rinke reports the company has more than 1000 employees now.

28 Apr 2020

Tecton.ai emerges from stealth with $20M Series A to build machine learning platform

Three former Uber engineers, who helped build the company’s Michelangelo machine learning platform, left the company last year to form Tecton.ai and build an operational machine learning platform for everyone else. Today the company announced a $20 million Series A from a couple of high-profile investors.

Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital co-led the round with Martin Casado, general partner at a16z and Matt Miller, partner at Sequoia joining the company board under the terms of the agreement. Today’s investment combined with the seed they used to spend the last year building the product comes to $25 million. Not bad in today’s environment.

But when you have the pedigree of these three founders — CEO Mike Del Balso, CTO Kevin Stumpf and VP of Engineering Jeremy Hermann all helped build the Uber system —  investors will spend some money, especially when you are trying to solve a difficult problem around machine learning.

The Michelangelo system was the machine learning platform at Uber that looked at things like driver safety, estimated arrival time and fraud detection, among other things. The three founders wanted to take what they had learned at Uber and put it to work for companies struggling with machine learning.

“What Tecton is really about is helping organizations make it really easy to build production-level machine learning systems, and put them in production and operate them correctly. And we focus on the data layer of machine learning,” CEO Del Balso told TechCrunch.

Image Credit: Tecton.ai

Del Balso says part of the problem, even for companies that are machine learning-savvy, is building and reusing models across different use cases. In fact, he says the vast majority of machine learning projects out there are failing, and Tecton wanted to give these companies the tools to change that.

The company has come up with a solution to make it much easier to create a model and put it to work by connecting to data sources, making it easier to reuse the data and the models across related use cases. “We’re focused on the data tasks related to machine learning, and all the data pipelines that are related to power those models,” Del Balso said.

Certainly Martin Casado from a16z sees a problem in search of a solution and he likes the background of this team and its understanding of building a system like this at scale. “After tracking a number of deep engagements with top ML teams and their interest in what Tecton was building, we invested in Tecton’s A alongside Sequoia. We strongly believe that these systems will continue to increasingly rely on data and ML models, and an entirely new tool chain is needed to aid in developing them…,” he wrote in a blog post announcing the funding.

The company currently has 17 employees and is looking to hire, particularly data scientists and machine learning engineers, with a goal of 30 employees by the end of the year.

While Del Balso is certainly cognizant of the current economic situation, he believes he can still build this company because he’s solving a problem that people genuinely are looking for help with right now around machine learning.

“From the customers we’re talking to, they need to solve these problems, and so we don’t see things slowing down,” he said.

28 Apr 2020

UK’s coronavirus contacts tracing app could ask users to share location data

More details have emerged about a coronavirus contacts tracing app being developed by UK authorities. NHSX CEO, Matthew Gould, said today that future versions of the app could ask users to share location data to help authorities learn more about how the virus propagates.

Gould, who heads up the digital transformation unit of the UK’s National Health Service, was giving evidence to the UK parliament’s Science & Technology Committee today.

At the same time, ongoing questions about the precise role of the UK’s domestic spy agency in key decisions about the NHSX’s choice of a centralized app architecture means privacy concerns are unlikely to go away — with Gould dodging the committee’s about GCHQ’s role.

A basic version of the NHSX’s coronavirus contacts tracing app is set to be tested in a small geographical region in the next 1-2 weeks, per Gould — who said “technically” it would be ready for a wider rollout in 2-3 weeks’ time.

Although he emphasized that any launch would need to be part of a wider government strategy which includes extensive testing and manual contacts tracing, along with a major effort to communicate to the public about the purpose and importance of the app as part of a combined response to fighting the virus.

In future versions of the app, Gould suggested users could be asked to contribute additional data — such as their location — in order to help epidemiologists identify infection hot spots, while emphasizing that such extra contributions would be voluntary.

“The app will iterate. We’ve been developing it at speed since the very start of the situation but the first version that we put out won’t have everything in it that we would like,” he said. “We’re quite keen, though, that subsequent versions should give people the opportunity to offer more data if they wish to do so.

“So, for example, it would be very useful, epidemiologically, if people were willing to offer us not just the anonymous proximity contacts but also the location of where those contacts took place — because that would allow us to know that certain places or certain sectors or whatever were a particular source of proximity contacts that subsequently became problematic.”

“If people were willing to do that — and I suspect a significant proportion of people would be willing to do that — then I think that would be very important data because that would allow us to have an important insight into how the virus was propagated,” he added.

For now, the basic version of the contacts tracing app the NHSX is devising is not being designed to track location. Instead, it will use Bluetooth as a proxy for infection risk, with phones that come into proximity swapping pseudonymized identifiers that may later be uploaded to a central server to calculate infection risk related to a person’s contacts.

Bluetooth proximity tracking is now being baked into national contacts tracing apps across Europe and elsewhere, although app architectures can vary considerably.

The UK is notable for being one of now relatively few European countries that have opted for a centralized model for coronavirus contacts tracing, after Germany switched its choice earlier this week.

France is also currently planning to use a centralized protocol. But countries including Estonia, Switzerland and Spain have said they will deploy decentralized apps — meaning infection risk calculations will be performed locally, on device, and social graph data will not be uploaded to a central authority.

Centralized approaches to coronavirus contact tracing have raised substantial privacy concerns as social graph data stored on a central server could be accessed and re-identified by the central authority controlling the server.

Apple and Google’s joint effort on a cross-platform API for national coronavirus contacts tracing apps is also being designed to work with decentralized approaches — meaning countries that want to go against the smartphone platform grain may face technically challenges such as battery drain and usability.

The committee asked Gould about the NHSX’s decision to develop its own app architecture, which means having to come up with workarounds to minimize issues such as battery drain because it won’t just be able to plug into the Apple -Google API . Yesterday the unit told the BBC how it’s planning to do this, while conceding its workaround won’t be as energy efficient as being able to use the API.

“We are co-operating very closely with a range of other countries. We’re sharing code, we’re sharing technical solutions and there’s a lot of co-operation but a really key part of how this works is not just the core Bluetooth technology — which is an important part of it — it’s the backend and how it ties in with testing, with tracing, with everything else. So a certain amount of it necessarily has to be embedded in the national approach,” said Gould, when asked why NHSX is going to the relative effort and hassle of developing its own bespoke centralized system rather than making use of protocols developed elsewhere.

“I would say we are sensibly trying to learn international best practice and share it — and we’ve shared quite a lot of the technological progress we’ve made in certain areas — but this has to embed in the wider UK strategy. So there’s an irreducible amount that has to be done nationally.”

On not aligning with Apple and Google’s decentralized approach specifically, he suggested that waiting for their system-wide contact tracing product to be released — due next month — would “slow us down quite considerably”. (During the committee hearing it was confirmed the first meeting relating to the NHSX app took place on March 7.)

While on the wider decision not to adopt a decentralized architecture for the app, Gould argued there’s a “false dichotomy” that decentralized is privacy secure and centralized isn’t. “We firmly believe that both our approach — though it has a measure of centralization in as much as your uploading the anonymized identifiers in order to run the cascades — nonetheless preserves people’s privacy in doing so,” he said.

“We don’t believe that’s a privacy endangering step. But also by doing so it allows you to see the contact graph of how this is propagating and how the contacts are working across a number of individuals, without knowing who they are, that allows you to do certain important things that you couldn’t do if it was just phone to phone propagation.”

He gave the example of detecting malicious use of contacts tracing being helped by being able to acquire social graph data. “One of the ways you can do that is looking for anomalous patterns even if you don’t know who the individuals are you can see anomalous propagation which the approach we’ve taken allows,” he said. “We’re not clear that a decentralized approach allows.”

Another example he gave was a person declaring themselves symptomatic and a cascade being run to notify their contacts and then that person subsequently testing negative.

“We want to be able to release all the people that have been given an instruction to isolate previously on the basis of [the false positive person] being symptomatic. If it was done in an entirely decentalized way that becomes very difficult,” he suggested. “Because it’s all been done phone to phone you can’t go back to those individuals to say you don’t have to be locked down because your index case turned out to be negative. So we really believe there are big advantages the way we’re doing it. But we don’t believe it’s privacy endangering.”

Responding to the latter claim, Dr Michael Veale — a lecturer in digital rights and regulation at UCL who is also one of the authors of a decentalized protocol for contacts tracing, called DP-3T, that’s being adopted by a number of European governments — told us: “It is trivial to extend a decentralised system to allow individuals to upload ‘all clear’ keys too, although not something that DP-3T focussed on building in because to my knowledge, it is only the UK that wishes to allow these cascades to trigger instructions to self-isolate based on unverified self-reporting.”

In the decentralized scenario, “individuals would simply upload their identifiers again, flagging them as ‘false alarm’, they would be downloaded by everyone, and the phones of those who had been told to quarantine would notify the individual that they no longer needed to isolate”, Veale added — explaining how a ‘false alarm’ notification could indeed be sent without a government needing to centralize social graph data.

The committee also asked Gould directly whether UK spy agency, GCHQ, was involved in the decision to choose a centralized approach for the app. The BBC reported yesterday that experts from the cyber security arm of the spy agency, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), had aided the effort.

At first pass Gould dodged the question. Pressed a second time he dodged a direct answer, saying only that the NCSC were “part of the discussions in which we decided to take the approach that we’ve taken”.

“[The NCSC] have, along with a number of others — the Information Commission’s Office, the National Data Guardian, the NHS — been advising us. And as the technical authority for cyber security I’m very glad to have had the NCSC’s advice,” he also said.

“We have said will will open source the software, we have said we will publish the privacy model and the security model that’s underpinning what we’re going to do,” he added. “The whole model rests on people having randomized IDs so the only point in the process at which they need to say to us who they are is when they need to order a test having become symptomatic because it’s impossible to do that otherwise.

“They will have the choice both to download the app and turn it on but also to upload the list of randomized IDs of people they’ve been in touch with. They will also have the choice at any point to delete the app and all the data that they haven’t shared with us up to that point with it. So I do believe that what we’ve done is respectful of people’s privacy but at the same time effective in terms of being able to keep people safe.”

Gould was unable to tell the committee when the app’s code will be open sourced, or even confirm it would happen before the app was made available. But he did say the unit is committed to publishing data protection impact assessments — claiming this would be done “for each iteration” of the app.

“At every stage we will do a data protection impact assessment, at every stage we’ll make sure the information commission know’s what we’re doing and is comfortable with what we’re doing so we will proceed carefully and make sure what we do is compliant,” he said.

At another point in the hearing, Lillian Edwards, a professor of law, innovation and society at Newcastle Law School who was also giving evidence, pointed out that the Information Commissioner’s Office’s executive director, Simon McDougall, told a public forum last week that the agency had not in fact seen details of the app plan.

“There has been a slight information gap there,” she suggested. “This is normally a situation with an app that is high risk stakes involving very sensitive personal data — where there is clearly a GDPR [General Data Protection Regulation] obligation to prepare a Data Protection Impact Assessment — where one might have thought that prior consultation and a formal sign off by the ICO might have been desirable.”

“But I’m very gratified to hear that a Data Protection Impact Assessment is being prepared and will be published and I think it would be very important to have a schedule on that — at least at some draft level — as obviously the technical details of the app are changing from day to day,” Edwards added.

We’ve reached out to the ICO to ask if it’s seen plans for the app or any data protection impact assessment now.

During the committee hearing, Gould was also pressed on what will happen to data sets uploaded to the central server once the app has been required. He said such data sets could be used for “research purposes”.

“There is the possibility of being able to use the data subsequently for research purposes,” he said. “We’ve said all along that the data from the app — the app will only be used for controlling the epidemic, for helping the NHS, public health and for research purposes. If we’re going to use data to ask people if we can keep their data for research purposes we will make that abundantly clear and they’ll have the choice on whether to do so.”

Gould followed up later in the session by adding that he didn’t envisage such data-sets being shared with the private sector. “This is data that will be probably under the joint data controllership of DHSC and NHS England and Improvement. I see no context in which it would be shared with the private sector,” he said, adding that UK law does already criminalize the reidentification of anonymized data.

“There are a series of protections that are in place and I would be very sorry if people started talking about sharing this data with the private sector as if it was a possibility. I don’t see it as a possibility.”

In another exchange during the session Gould told the committee the app will not include any facial recognition technology. Although he was unable to entirely rule out some role for the tech in future public health-related digital coronavirus interventions, such as related to certification of immunity.

28 Apr 2020

A16Z-backed Tomorrow Health launches with $7.5M seed round to improve in-home healthcare

New startup Tomorrow Health emerged from stealth today, led by former Oscar Health executive Vijay Kedar and Casper co-founder Gabriel Flateman, with a $7.5 million seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz. The goal of the new company is to address a particular aspect of home healthcare – access to the often confusing and frequently difficult to navigate world of in-home healthcare resources including equipment and supplies.

Tomorrow Health aims to take the complication out of the process of securing products instrumental in caring for patients at home, including gear like orthotic supports, mobility equipment like walkers and wheelchairs, CPAP machines and other respiratory hardware, and much more. The company was born out of founder Kedar’s own personal experience managing the care of his mother during a serious illness, and aims to connect insurers with customers in a way that takes all the guesswork out the process and introduces transparency that means patients understand what they’re getting, and what they’re paying for.

In a blog post announcing the company, Kedar notes that part of the reason he saw a need for this company now is the growing percentage of Americans who are opting to “age in place” at home, rather than seek out an assisted living facility. That, combined with the changes that will result from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, could position anything that improves at-home care improvements for big growth and adoption over the next few years.

Already, we’re seeing healthcare companies that are focused on frontline and primary care shift to adopt more remote car practices. Forward, a clinic startup from SF, also accelerated the launch of a new at-home primary care product that adopts their biometric data-driven care model.

Healthcare involves a number of interoperating pieces, and equipment supply is one of the pieces that has encountered the least amount of modernization and tech-focused innovation, so it’s good to see a startup emerge to try to tackle this piece and adapt it to the fast-changing care landscape in the coronavirus era.

28 Apr 2020

A16Z-backed Tomorrow Health launches with $7.5M seed round to improve in-home healthcare

New startup Tomorrow Health emerged from stealth today, led by former Oscar Health executive Vijay Kedar and Casper co-founder Gabriel Flateman, with a $7.5 million seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz. The goal of the new company is to address a particular aspect of home healthcare – access to the often confusing and frequently difficult to navigate world of in-home healthcare resources including equipment and supplies.

Tomorrow Health aims to take the complication out of the process of securing products instrumental in caring for patients at home, including gear like orthotic supports, mobility equipment like walkers and wheelchairs, CPAP machines and other respiratory hardware, and much more. The company was born out of founder Kedar’s own personal experience managing the care of his mother during a serious illness, and aims to connect insurers with customers in a way that takes all the guesswork out the process and introduces transparency that means patients understand what they’re getting, and what they’re paying for.

In a blog post announcing the company, Kedar notes that part of the reason he saw a need for this company now is the growing percentage of Americans who are opting to “age in place” at home, rather than seek out an assisted living facility. That, combined with the changes that will result from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, could position anything that improves at-home care improvements for big growth and adoption over the next few years.

Already, we’re seeing healthcare companies that are focused on frontline and primary care shift to adopt more remote car practices. Forward, a clinic startup from SF, also accelerated the launch of a new at-home primary care product that adopts their biometric data-driven care model.

Healthcare involves a number of interoperating pieces, and equipment supply is one of the pieces that has encountered the least amount of modernization and tech-focused innovation, so it’s good to see a startup emerge to try to tackle this piece and adapt it to the fast-changing care landscape in the coronavirus era.

28 Apr 2020

Facebook will stream a virtual graduation ceremony featuring Oprah and Miley Cyrus

As dates for reopening the country are continually pushed back, virtually every aspect of life has been disrupted. Holidays, birthdays, weddings and funerals have begun to be virtualized in order for attendees to maintain social distances. It’s an inevitability the class of 2020 has no doubt been dreading for months.

Here’s some consolation from Facebook: a virtual graduation ceremony. The social media giant is bringing out some heavy hitters for the event, too. Oprah Winfrey will be giving the commencement address, while Awkwafina, Jennifer Garner, Lil Nas X and Simone Biles will all be giving speech. Miley Cyrus is set to perform.

The event kicks off at 11AM PT/2PM ET on May 15 via the Facebook Watch App. Four days prior, Instagram will start showing daily videos “that spotlights iconic senior experiences — from ‘most likely’ votes to portrait showcases to senior skip day.” The company will also be offering features to host a “virtual graduation ceremony and party” on the site.

Other sites are holding similar events. Also on May 15, Her Story will host I’m Still Graduating, featuring appearances by  Eva Longoria, Radhika Jones, Margaret Cho, Brooke Baldwin, Liam Payne, Jesse McCartney, Andrew Yang and Tamron Hall. Many school are also planning their own, less star-studded events to celebrate graduations remotely. 

It has to be a bit heartbreaking to do all of this stuff through social medium, Zoom and the like. But for the time being, that’s just going to have to be the virtual world we live in. 

28 Apr 2020

Facebook will stream a virtual graduation ceremony featuring Oprah and Miley Cyrus

As dates for reopening the country are continually pushed back, virtually every aspect of life has been disrupted. Holidays, birthdays, weddings and funerals have begun to be virtualized in order for attendees to maintain social distances. It’s an inevitability the class of 2020 has no doubt been dreading for months.

Here’s some consolation from Facebook: a virtual graduation ceremony. The social media giant is bringing out some heavy hitters for the event, too. Oprah Winfrey will be giving the commencement address, while Awkwafina, Jennifer Garner, Lil Nas X and Simone Biles will all be giving speech. Miley Cyrus is set to perform.

The event kicks off at 11AM PT/2PM ET on May 15 via the Facebook Watch App. Four days prior, Instagram will start showing daily videos “that spotlights iconic senior experiences — from ‘most likely’ votes to portrait showcases to senior skip day.” The company will also be offering features to host a “virtual graduation ceremony and party” on the site.

Other sites are holding similar events. Also on May 15, Her Story will host I’m Still Graduating, featuring appearances by  Eva Longoria, Radhika Jones, Margaret Cho, Brooke Baldwin, Liam Payne, Jesse McCartney, Andrew Yang and Tamron Hall. Many school are also planning their own, less star-studded events to celebrate graduations remotely. 

It has to be a bit heartbreaking to do all of this stuff through social medium, Zoom and the like. But for the time being, that’s just going to have to be the virtual world we live in. 

28 Apr 2020

Velo3D, a supplier of 3D printers to SpaceX, raises $28 million

Despite fundraising in the middle of a worldwide pandemic that has managed to shut down a significant chunk of global manufacturing, the developer of a metal composite 3D printing technology, Velo3D, has managed to raise $28 million in funding.

Over the past fifteen months, the company had bookings of $29 million and revenue of $50 million, Buller said. And it’s managed to land one of the most technically demanding contracts in the manufacturing industry — supplying 3D printers to none other than the world’s most successful new private rocket company, SpaceX .

“We are creating the seeds with the first customers that are using our product and are transitioning parts to production using our manufacturing solution,” says Buller.

Ramping up to industrial scale production using the company’s 3D printers is simple, says Buller. Velo3D pitches its printers in two ways. Either companies can buy the custom 3D printers and license the design software from the company, or it can pay for the printers and software in a single bundled service.

The value proposition that the company offers was enough to attract new investor Piva, the venture capital investment arm of the Malaysian energy giant Petronus along with TNSC. Previous investors Bessemer Investment Partners, Playground, and Khosla Ventures also participated in the financing, the company said.

With the new funding, Velo3D has raised $138 million in financing in total. The company said the new capital would be used to expand its product portfolio to include more alloys, enhanced hardware and software capabilities, and machine options. With the new cash, the company expects to reach sustained profitability by mid-2022.

Three companies in the 3D printed metal market are already vying for dominance with Desktop Metal; XJet; and MarkForged competing for a piece of the industrial manufacturing market. What separates Velo3D from those other manufacturers of metal 3D printers is the company’s quality assurance software and services.

“As we were looking at this company we were pretty impressed,” said Ricardo Angel, the chief executive of PIva and a former managing director at GE Ventures. “I was impressed by the technology that they developed. They had a really easy-to-use design software tool [and] they had this really deep quality control and assurance component.”

The quality control and assurance capabilities were two features that were likely critically important to the company landing its largest customer, SpaceX.

“SpaceX has started using us for a specific component that they had very significant issues manufacturing that using existing techniques,” said Buller. “SpaceX has been using 3D printing for production of engines… As they are designing the next generation engines from the starship… there were some components that they could not produce [and] over time they shifted more and more and more components to our system.”

 

28 Apr 2020

5 top gaming investors explain how the pandemic is reshaping MMOs and social games

Now that the COVID-19 pandemic has forced millions into isolation, video games are seeing a surge in usage as people seek entertainment and social interaction.

When we surveyed gaming-focused VCs in October, Andreessen Horowitz partner Jonathan Lai predicted that “next-generation games will be bigger than anything we’ve seen yet,” eventually reaching “Facebook scale.” This month, when we asked 17 VCs how this era would impact consumer startups, gaming was one of the top verticals they named.

We wanted to learn more about how the venture community thinks about the future of this sector, so we asked five experienced gaming investors about where they do — and don’t — see new opportunities within this trend:

Below are their responses, edited for space and clarity. We’ll follow up with surveys on other gaming categories in the next couple of weeks.

And if you’re interested in understanding the challenges for gaming companies aiming to become next-generation social platforms, be sure to read my eight-part series on virtual worlds.

28 Apr 2020

Changing SaaS startup benchmarks in the COVID-19 era

Hello and welcome back to our regular morning look at private companies, public markets and the gray space in between.

Last week we dug into a set of benchmarks that Bessemer Venture Partners, a venture capital firm that invests in software companies among other categories, drew up to grade software-as-a-service (SaaS) startups. The performance metrics were designed to bucket SaaS startups into quality cohorts based on their performance, giving founders and other investors a measuring stick for startup results.

But the metrics were designed pre-COVID-19 and the ensuing economic shakeup of the domestic and global economies. To get a handle on what might have changed in the metrics, and their underlying expectations, since economic growth has slowed and companies large and small have laid off staff, pushing unemployment to historic heights, I spoke with Bessemer’s Mary D’Onofrio, a growth-stage investor at the firm and one of the authors of the report the metrics were originally taken from. (TechCrunch also spoke with her recently about valuing startups in a downturn.)

This morning, let’s talk about SaaS growth, retention, and burn metrics in the new era. After all, with growth concerns rising and churn itself picking up, surely the venture friendly triple-triple-double-double-double is out the window, right?

New measures of SaaS success

Kicking off, what has changed in regards to growth? As we covered Friday, Bessemer’s original growth expectations feel aggressive today as the U.S. economy heads into a recession. D’Onofrio told TechCrunch in an interview that it’s a bit early to tell how much things have changed. But while she admitted that “we don’t have enough data to have crisp benchmarks at this point,” she did have some notes to share.

For instance, anecdotal data from inside the venture capital community points to SaaS startups looking at a “30% miss to plan” in Q1 2020. That’s a steep loss of pace.

In light of new growth expectations, of course, the bar is lower making stronger results all the more impressive. “There are going to be some very solid growers,” she added, that “could still meet that 50% ‘good’ benchmark, which in this context we would consider to be even better than we would have” before COVID-19.

Yet growth expectations have slowed as the economy has dipped. The 30% decline, mind, is for Q1, not Q2. D’Onofrio isn’t certain what’s coming in the current quarter.

“All of these plans and all of these budgets are being constantly reevaluated,” she said.

In light of that uncertainty, however, the investor is not as focused on growth as she might have been a year ago. “Rather than focus exactly on the growth rate,” D’Onofrio told TechCrunch, she’s more focused on a startup’s “growth rate in the context of the burn and in the context of the capital efficiency.” So, let’s talk about burn.

Asked about a new ratio between burn (net cash loss in a period of time) and growth (ARR expansion in a period of time), D’Onofrio told TechCrunch that she doesn’t have a new metric in hand yet for the COVID-19 era, but that “as close as [a startup] can get to a one-to-one ratio between net new ARR and burn, the better.” (As some SaaS metrics look at preceding quarter spend against present quarter growth, I asked D’Onofrio about this particular ratio which is instead measuring burn and ARR growth from the same quarter.)

If you recall our discussion from last week, Bessemer differentiated churn (revenue loss), and net retention (the sum of churn and selling more to existing customers) expectations for startups based on what sort of companies they sold to. In the pre-COVID-19 era, the venture capital firm expected most startups to post positive net retention, or more simply that their existing customer base would, on balance, spend more money with the company over time. For startups targeting smaller businesses (SMBs), expectations were looser.

But with churn on the rise thanks to the pandemic and our global response to its threat, what’s changed? Startups that sell to “SMBs are going to be disproportionately affected as SMB spending decelerates and a lot of them go out of business,” D’Onofrio told TechCrunch. In Bessemer’s portfolio, she added, its strongest-performing SaaS companies that sold to SMBs posted net retention numbers over 100% before the world economy changed. “Obviously with coronavirus that is going to change,” she added, saying that many of those startups “are going to re-forecast lowest, honestly, because of their customer segment.”

Enterprise-focused startups are expected to be more resilient she added, adding that as in-person sales are kaput for a while, upsells (selling more product to existing customers) becomes more important. How much might upsells be impacted by the slowing economy? The same uncertainty that we all feel is impacting corporate budgets, according to D’Onofrio, saying that Q2 economic activity will set expectations.

“Companies may or may not feel more comfortable expanding their seats,” she added, based on what they see in the period. Regardless, she expects upsells in the enterprise to continue, if at a possibly reduced pace.

In summation: Startups are looking at around a 30% miss to plan in Q1 with Q2 itself far from settled. This has tempered investor growth expectations. But even more than raw growth figures, SaaS investors are looking for efficient growth. In Bessemer’s eyes, a 1:1 ratio of ARR add to burn is the target. It won’t be easy. Startups selling to SMBs are going to hurt worse by rising churn than enterprise-focused startups, while startups selling to larger customers may struggle with new customer adds given travel restrictions. So, enterprise-focused startups will likely lean more on upsells than new logo adds. Those will also prove difficult, even if they won’t slow completely.

Finally, what’s changed about Bessemer’s cash conversion score (CCS) expectations? Recall from Friday that a startup’s CCS helps detail “how much cash [it] has burned to generate some amount of annual recurring revenue.” This will sound familiar, as D’Onofrio told TechCrunch earlier that a 1:1 (1x) ratio of burn to new ARR was great. That’s precisely what Bessemer noted in its presentation, giving startups that managed a lifetime CCS of 1.0x or better the score of “best,” while startups that managed from 0.25x to 1.0x were awarded grades of good-to-better.

After noting that “the median cash conversion score for a public cloud company at $100 million of revenue was a 1.3x” historically, D’Onofrio said that she is “definitely expecting a dip” in how startups perform on the metric in the near-term before emphasizing the long-term nature of venture investing. Instead of betting a startup’s Q2 performance, she said, VCs have multi-year investment horizons.

Still, cash conversion scores at startups are going to fall in 2020. “We’ve already talked through churn, we’ve talked through growth rate,” she summarized for TechCrunch, adding that she “expect[s] a deceleration [in CCS] for most companies.”

Until we know more about Q2 SaaS startup growth rates, how far variable costs can be reduced to limit burn, and what churn works out across various customer cohorts it is hard to know what to expect as a future benchmark for this particular metric. But the threshold of ‘good’ has changed. Like growth rates, it’s likely a bit lower than it was in January or February. How far is the question.

So SaaS startups are, taking D’Onofrio’s notes in aggregate, entering a period in which all expectations are likely to slip; the best will stand out all the more, while weaker SaaS firms could fall into uninvestable territory. It’s up to startups to conserve cash while maintaining venture-ready performance. If that sounds like a tall order that’s because it is. And it will get harder the longer the economy is crumbling.

When we get Q2 numbers in, TechCrunch will get Bessemer’s growth team back on the phone to find out what they are seeing. For now, uncertainty and falling thresholds of good, better, best is the order of the day.