Year: 2021

07 Jul 2021

YouTube’s recommender AI still a horrorshow, finds major crowdsourced study

For years YouTube’s video-recommending algorithm has stood accused of fuelling a grab-bag of societal ills by feeding users an AI-amplified diet of hate speech, political extremism and/or conspiracy junk/disinformation for the profiteering motive of trying to keep billions of eyeballs stuck to its ad inventory.

And while YouTube’s tech giant parent Google has, sporadically, responded to negative publicity flaring up around the algorithm’s antisocial recommendations — announcing a few policy tweaks or limiting/purging the odd hateful account — it’s not clear how far the platform’s penchant for promoting horribly unhealthy clickbait has actually been rebooted.

The suspicion remains nowhere near far enough.

New research published today by Mozilla backs that notion up, suggesting YouTube’s AI continues to puff up piles of ‘bottom-feeding’/low grade/divisive/disinforming content — stuff that tries to grab eyeballs by triggering people’s sense of outrage, sewing division/polarization or spreading baseless/harmful disinformation — which in turn implies that YouTube’s problem with recommending terrible stuff is indeed systemic; a side-effect of the platform’s rapacious appetite to harvest views to serve ads.

That YouTube’s AI is still — per Mozilla’s study — behaving so badly also suggests Google has been pretty successful at fuzzing criticism with superficial claims of reform.

The mainstay of its deflective success here is likely the primary protection mechanism of keeping the recommender engine’s algorithmic workings (and associated data) hidden from public view and external oversight — via the convenient shield of ‘commercial secrecy’.

But regulation that could help crack open proprietary AI blackboxes is now on the cards — at least in Europe.

To fix YouTube’s algorithm, Mozilla is calling for “common sense transparency laws, better oversight, and consumer pressure” — suggesting a combination of laws that mandate transparency into AI systems; protect independent researchers so they can interrogate algorithmic impacts; and empower platform users with robust controls (such as the ability to opt out of “personalized” recommendations) are what’s needed to rein in the worst excesses of the YouTube AI.

Regrets, YouTube users have had a few…

To gather data on specific recommendations being made made to YouTube users — information that Google does not routinely make available to external researchers — Mozilla took a crowdsourced approach, via a browser extension (called RegretsReporter) that lets users self-report YouTube videos they “regret” watching.

The tool can generate a report which includes details of the videos the user had been recommended, as well as earlier video views, to help build up a picture of how YouTube’s recommender system was functioning. (Or, well, ‘dysfunctioning’ as the case may be.)

The crowdsourced volunteers whose data fed Mozilla’s research reported a wide variety of ‘regrets’, including videos spreading COVID-19 fear-mongering, political misinformation and “wildly inappropriate” children’s cartoons, per the report — with the most frequently reported content categories being misinformation, violent/graphic content, hate speech and spam/scams.

A substantial majority (71%) of the regret reports came from videos that had been recommended by YouTube’s algorithm itself, underscoring the AI’s starring role in pushing junk into people’s eyeballs.

The research also found that recommended videos were 40% more likely to be reported by the volunteers than videos they’d searched for themselves.

Mozilla even found “several” instances when the recommender algorithmic put content in front of users that violated YouTube’s own community guidelines and/or was unrelated to the previous video watched. So a clear fail.

A very notable finding was that regrettable content appears to be a greater problem for YouTube users in non-English speaking countries: Mozilla found YouTube regrets were 60% higher in countries without English as a primary language — with Brazil, Germany and France generating what the report said were “particularly high” levels of regretful YouTubing. (And none of the three can be classed as minor international markets.)

Pandemic-related regrets were also especially prevalent in non-English speaking countries, per the report — a worrying detail to read in the middle of an ongoing global health crisis.

The crowdsourced study — which Mozilla bills as the largest-ever into YouTube’s recommender algorithm — drew on data from more than 37,000 YouTube users who installed the extension, although it was a subset of 1,162 volunteers — from 91 countries — who submitted reports that flagged 3,362 regrettable videos which the report draws on directly.

These reports were generated between July 2020 and May 2021.

What exactly does Mozilla mean by a YouTube “regret”? It says this is a crowdsourced concept based on users self-reporting bad experiences on YouTube, so it’s a subjective measure. But Mozilla argues that taking this “people-powered” approach centres the lived experiences of Internet users and is therefore helpful in foregrounding the experiences of marginalised and/or vulnerable people and communities (vs, for example, applying only a narrower, legal definition of ‘harm’).

“We wanted to interrogate and explore further [people’s experiences of falling down the YouTube ‘rabbit hole’] and frankly confirm some of these stories — but then also just understand further what are some of the trends that emerged in that,” explained Brandi Geurkink, Mozilla’s senior manager of advocacy and the lead researcher for the project, discussing the aims of the research.

“My main feeling in doing this work was being — I guess — shocked that some of what we had expected to be the case was confirmed… It’s still a limited study in terms of the number of people involved and the methodology that we used but — even with that — it was quite simple; the data just showed that some of what we thought was confirmed.

“Things like the algorithm recommending content essentially accidentally, that it later is like ‘oops, this actually violates our policies; we shouldn’t have actively suggested that to people’… And things like the non-English-speaking user base having worse experiences — these are things you hear discussed a lot anecdotally and activists have raised these issues. But I was just like — oh wow, it’s actually coming out really clearly in our data.”

Mozilla says the crowdsourced research uncovered “numerous examples” of reported content that would likely or actually breach YouTube’s community guidelines — such as hate speech or debunked political and scientific misinformation.

But it also says the reports flagged a lot of what YouTube “may” consider ‘borderline content’. Aka, stuff that’s harder to categorize — junk/low quality videos that perhaps toe the acceptability line and may therefore be trickier for the platform’s algorithmic moderation systems to respond to (and thus content that may also survive the risk of a take down for longer).

However a related issue the report flags is that YouTube doesn’t provide a definition for borderline content — despite discussing the category in its own guidelines — hence, says Mozilla, that makes the researchers’ assumption that much of what the volunteers were reporting as ‘regretful’ would likely fall into YouTube’s own ‘borderline content’ category impossible to verify.

The challenge of independently studying the societal effects of Google’s tech and processes is a running theme underlying the research. But Mozilla’s report also accuses the tech giant of meeting YouTube criticism with “inertia and opacity”.

It’s not alone there either. Critics have long accused YouTube’s ad giant parent of profiting off-of engagement generated by hateful outrage and harmful disinformation — allowing “AI-generated bubbles of hate” surface ever more baleful (and thus stickily engaging) stuff, exposing unsuspecting YouTube users to increasingly unpleasant and extremist views, even as Google gets to shield its low grade content business under a user-generated content umbrella.

Indeed, ‘falling down the YouTube rabbit hole’ has become a well-trodden metaphor for discussing the process of unsuspecting Internet users being dragging into the darkest and nastiest corners of the web. This user reprogramming taking place in broad daylight via AI-generated suggestions that yell at people to follow the conspiracy breadcrumb trail right from inside a mainstream web platform.

Back as 2017 — when concern was riding high about online terrorism and the proliferation of ISIS content on social media — politicians in Europe were accusing YouTube’s algorithm of exactly this: Automating radicalization.

However it’s remained difficult to get hard data to back up anecdotal reports of individual YouTube users being ‘radicalized’ after viewing hours of extremist content or conspiracy theory junk on Google’s platform.

Ex-YouTube insider — Guillaume Chaslot — is one notable critic who’s sought to pull back the curtain shielding the proprietary tech from deeper scrutiny, via his algotransparency project.

Mozilla’s crowdsourced research adds to those efforts by sketching a broad — and broadly problematic — picture of the YouTube AI by collating reports of bad experiences from users themselves.

Of course externally sampling platform-level data that only Google holds in full (at its true depth and dimension) can’t be the whole picture — and self-reporting, in particular, may introduce its own set of biases into Mozilla’s data-set. But the problem of effectively studying big tech’s blackboxes is a key point accompanying the research, as Mozilla advocates for proper oversight of platform power.

In a series of recommendations the report calls for “robust transparency, scrutiny, and giving people control of recommendation algorithms” — arguing that without proper oversight of the platform, YouTube will continue to be harmful by mindlessly exposing people to damaging and braindead content.

The problematic lack of transparency around so much of how YouTube functions can be picked up from other details in the report. For example, Mozilla found that around 9% of recommended regrets (or almost 200 videos) had since been taken down — for a variety of not always clear reasons (sometimes, presumably, after the content was reported and judged by YouTube to have violated its guidelines).

Collectively, just this subset of videos had had a total of 160M views prior to being removed for whatever reason.

In other findings, the research found that regretful views tend to perform well on the platform.

A particular stark metric is that reported regrets acquired a full 70% more views per day than other videos watched by the volunteers on the platform — lending weight to the argument that YouTube’s engagement-optimising algorithms disproportionately select for triggering/misinforming content more often than quality (thoughtful/informing) stuff simply because it brings in the clicks.

While that might be great for Google’s ad business, it’s clearly a net negative for democratic societies which value truthful information over nonsense; genuine public debate over artificial/amplified binaries; and constructive civic cohesion over divisive tribalism.

But without legally-enforced transparency requirements on ad platforms — and, most likely, regulatory oversight and enforcement that features audit powers — these tech giants are going to continue to be incentivized to turn a blind eye and cash in at society’s expense.

Mozilla’s report also underlines instances where YouTube’s algorithms are clearly driven by a logic that’s unrelated to the content itself — with a finding that in 43.6% of the cases where the researchers had data about the videos a participant had watched before a reported regret the recommendation was completely unrelated to the previous video.

The report gives examples of some of these logic-defying AI content pivots/leaps/pitfalls — such as a person watching videos about the U.S. military and then being recommended a misogynistic video entitled ‘Man humiliates feminist in viral video.’

In another instance, a person watched a video about software rights and was then recommended a video about gun rights. So two rights make yet another wrong YouTube recommendation right there.

In a third example, a person watched an Art Garfunkel music video and was then recommended a political video entitled ‘Trump Debate Moderator EXPOSED as having Deep Democrat Ties, Media Bias Reaches BREAKING Point.’

To which the only sane response is, umm what???

YouTube’s output in such instances seems — at best — some sort of ‘AI brain fart’.

A generous interpretation might be that the algorithm got stupidly confused. Albeit, in a number of the examples cited in the report, the confusion is leading YouTube users toward content with a right-leaning political bias. Which seems, well, curious.

Asked what she views as the most concerning findings, Mozilla’s Geurkink told TechCrunch: “One is how clearly misinformation emerged as a dominant problem on the platform. I think that’s something, based on our work talking to Mozilla supporters and people from all around the world, that is a really obvious thing that people are concerned about online. So to see that that is what is emerging as the biggest problem with the YouTube algorithm is really concerning to me.”

She also highlighted the problem of the recommendations being worse for non-English-speaking users as another major concern, suggesting that global inequalities in users’ experiences of platform impacts “doesn’t get enough attention” — even when such issues do get discussed.

Responding to Mozilla’s report in a statement, a Google spokesperson sent us this statement:

“The goal of our recommendation system is to connect viewers with content they love and on any given day, more than 200 million videos are recommended on the homepage alone. Over 80 billion pieces of information is used to help inform our systems, including survey responses from viewers on what they want to watch. We constantly work to improve the experience on YouTube and over the past year alone, we’ve launched over 30 different changes to reduce recommendations of harmful content. Thanks to this change, consumption of borderline content that comes from our recommendations is now significantly below 1%.”

Google also claimed it welcomes research into YouTube — and suggested it’s exploring options to bring in external researchers to study the platform, without offering anything concrete on that front.

At the same time, its response queried how Mozilla’s study defines ‘regrettable’ content — and went on to claim that its own user surveys generally show users are satisfied with the content that YouTube recommends.

In further non-quotable remarks, Google noted that earlier this year it started disclosing a ‘violative view rate‘ (VVR) metric for YouTube — disclosing for the first time the percentage of views on YouTube that comes from content that violates its policies.

The most recent VVR stands at 0.16-0.18% — which Google says means that out of every 10,000 views on YouTube, 16-18 come from violative content. It said that figure is down by more than 70% when compared to the same quarter of 2017 — crediting its investments in machine learning as largely being responsible for the drop.

However, as Geurkink noted, the VVR is of limited use without Google releasing more data to contextualize and quantify how far its AI was involved in accelerating views of content its own rules state shouldn’t be viewed on its platform. Without that key data the suspicion must be that the VVR is a nice bit of misdirection.

“What would be going further than [VVR] — and what would be really, really helpful — is understanding what’s the role that the recommendation algorithm plays in this?” Geurkink told us on that, adding: “That’s what is a complete blackbox still. In the absence of greater transparency [Google’s] claims of progress have to be taken with a grain of salt.”

Google also flagged a 2019 change it made to how YouTube’s recommender algorithm handles ‘borderline content’ — aka, content that doesn’t violate policies but falls into a problematic grey area — saying that that tweak had also resulted in a 70% drop in watchtime for this type of content.

Although the company confirmed this borderline category is a moveable feast — saying it factors in changing trends as well as context and also works with experts to determine what’s get classed as borderline — which makes the aforementioned percentage drop pretty meaningless since there’s no fixed baseline to measure against.

It’s notable that Google’s response to Mozilla’s report makes no mention of the poor experience reported by survey participants in non-English-speaking markets. And Geurkink suggested that, in general, many of the claimed mitigating measures YouTube applies are geographically limited — i.e. to English-speaking markets like the US and UK. (Or at least arrive in those markets first, before a slower rollout to other places.) 

A January 2019 tweak to reduce amplification of conspiracy theory content in the US was only expanded to the UK market months later — in August — for example.

“YouTube, for the past few years, have only been reporting on their progress of recommendations of harmful or borderline content in the US and in English-speaking markets,” she also said. “And there are very few people questioning that — what about the rest of the world? To me that is something that really deserves more attention and more scrutiny.”

We asked Google to confirm whether it had since applied the 2019 conspiracy theory related changes globally — and a spokeswoman told us that it had. But the much higher rate of reports made to Mozilla of — a yes broader measure of — ‘regrettable’ content being made in non-English-speaking markets remains notable.

And while there could be others factors at play, which might explain some of the disproportionately higher reporting, the finding may also suggest that, where YouTube’s negative impacts are concerned, Google directs greatest resource at markets and languages where its reputational risk and the capacity of its machine learning tech to automate content categorization are strongest.

Yet any such unequal response to AI risk obviously means leaving some users at greater risk of harm than others — adding another harmful dimension and layer of unfairness to what is already a multi-faceted, many-headed-hydra of a problem.

It’s yet another reason why leaving it up to powerful platforms to rate their own AIs, mark their own homework and counter genuine concerns with self-serving PR is for the birds.

(In additional filler background remarks it sent us, Google described itself as the first company in the industry to incorporate “authoritativeness” into its search and discovery algorithms — without explaining when exactly it claims to have done that or how it imagined it would be able to deliver on its stated mission of ‘organizing the world’s information and making it universally accessible and useful’ without considering the relative value of information sources… So color us baffled at that claim. Most likely it’s a clumsy attempt to throw disinformation shade at rivals.)

Returning to the regulation point, an EU proposal — the Digital Services Act — is set to introduce some transparency requirements on large digital platforms, as part of a wider package of accountability measures. And asked about this Geurkink described the DSA as “a promising avenue for greater transparency”.

But she suggested the legislation needs to go further to tackle recommender systems like the YouTube AI.

“I think that transparency around recommender systems specifically and also people having control over the input of their own data and then the output of recommendations is really important — and is a place where the DSA is currently a bit sparse, so I think that’s where we really need to dig in,” she told us.

One idea she voiced support for is having a “data access framework” baked into the law — to enable vetted researchers to get more of the information they need to study powerful AI technologies — i.e. rather than the law trying to come up with “a laundry list of all of the different pieces of transparency and information that should be applicable”, as she put it.

The EU also now has a draft AI regulation on the table. The legislative plan takes a risk-based approach to regulating certain applications of artificial intelligence. However it’s not clear whether YouTube’s recommender system would fall under one of the more closely regulated categories — or, as seems more likely (at least with the initial Commission proposal), fall entirely outside the scope of the planned law.

“An earlier draft of the proposal talked about systems that manipulate human behavior which is essentially what recommender systems are. And one could also argue that’s the goal of advertising at large, in some sense. So it was sort of difficult to understand exactly where recommender systems would fall into that,” noted Geurkink.

“There might be a nice harmony between some of the robust data access provisions in the DSA and the new AI regulation,” she added. “I think transparency is what it comes down to, so anything that can provide that kind of greater transparency is a good thing.

“YouTube could also just provide a lot of this… We’ve been working on this for years now and we haven’t seen them take any meaningful action on this front but it’s also, I think, something that we want to keep in mind — legislation can obviously take years. So even if a few of our recommendations were taken up [by Google] that would be a really big step in the right direction.”

07 Jul 2021

YouTube’s recommender AI still a horrorshow, finds major crowdsourced study

For years YouTube’s video-recommending algorithm has stood accused of fuelling a grab-bag of societal ills by feeding users an AI-amplified diet of hate speech, political extremism and/or conspiracy junk/disinformation for the profiteering motive of trying to keep billions of eyeballs stuck to its ad inventory.

And while YouTube’s tech giant parent Google has, sporadically, responded to negative publicity flaring up around the algorithm’s antisocial recommendations — announcing a few policy tweaks or limiting/purging the odd hateful account — it’s not clear how far the platform’s penchant for promoting horribly unhealthy clickbait has actually been rebooted.

The suspicion remains nowhere near far enough.

New research published today by Mozilla backs that notion up, suggesting YouTube’s AI continues to puff up piles of ‘bottom-feeding’/low grade/divisive/disinforming content — stuff that tries to grab eyeballs by triggering people’s sense of outrage, sewing division/polarization or spreading baseless/harmful disinformation — which in turn implies that YouTube’s problem with recommending terrible stuff is indeed systemic; a side-effect of the platform’s rapacious appetite to harvest views to serve ads.

That YouTube’s AI is still — per Mozilla’s study — behaving so badly also suggests Google has been pretty successful at fuzzing criticism with superficial claims of reform.

The mainstay of its deflective success here is likely the primary protection mechanism of keeping the recommender engine’s algorithmic workings (and associated data) hidden from public view and external oversight — via the convenient shield of ‘commercial secrecy’.

But regulation that could help crack open proprietary AI blackboxes is now on the cards — at least in Europe.

To fix YouTube’s algorithm, Mozilla is calling for “common sense transparency laws, better oversight, and consumer pressure” — suggesting a combination of laws that mandate transparency into AI systems; protect independent researchers so they can interrogate algorithmic impacts; and empower platform users with robust controls (such as the ability to opt out of “personalized” recommendations) are what’s needed to rein in the worst excesses of the YouTube AI.

Regrets, YouTube users have had a few…

To gather data on specific recommendations being made made to YouTube users — information that Google does not routinely make available to external researchers — Mozilla took a crowdsourced approach, via a browser extension (called RegretsReporter) that lets users self-report YouTube videos they “regret” watching.

The tool can generate a report which includes details of the videos the user had been recommended, as well as earlier video views, to help build up a picture of how YouTube’s recommender system was functioning. (Or, well, ‘dysfunctioning’ as the case may be.)

The crowdsourced volunteers whose data fed Mozilla’s research reported a wide variety of ‘regrets’, including videos spreading COVID-19 fear-mongering, political misinformation and “wildly inappropriate” children’s cartoons, per the report — with the most frequently reported content categories being misinformation, violent/graphic content, hate speech and spam/scams.

A substantial majority (71%) of the regret reports came from videos that had been recommended by YouTube’s algorithm itself, underscoring the AI’s starring role in pushing junk into people’s eyeballs.

The research also found that recommended videos were 40% more likely to be reported by the volunteers than videos they’d searched for themselves.

Mozilla even found “several” instances when the recommender algorithmic put content in front of users that violated YouTube’s own community guidelines and/or was unrelated to the previous video watched. So a clear fail.

A very notable finding was that regrettable content appears to be a greater problem for YouTube users in non-English speaking countries: Mozilla found YouTube regrets were 60% higher in countries without English as a primary language — with Brazil, Germany and France generating what the report said were “particularly high” levels of regretful YouTubing. (And none of the three can be classed as minor international markets.)

Pandemic-related regrets were also especially prevalent in non-English speaking countries, per the report — a worrying detail to read in the middle of an ongoing global health crisis.

The crowdsourced study — which Mozilla bills as the largest-ever into YouTube’s recommender algorithm — drew on data from more than 37,000 YouTube users who installed the extension, although it was a subset of 1,162 volunteers — from 91 countries — who submitted reports that flagged 3,362 regrettable videos which the report draws on directly.

These reports were generated between July 2020 and May 2021.

What exactly does Mozilla mean by a YouTube “regret”? It says this is a crowdsourced concept based on users self-reporting bad experiences on YouTube, so it’s a subjective measure. But Mozilla argues that taking this “people-powered” approach centres the lived experiences of Internet users and is therefore helpful in foregrounding the experiences of marginalised and/or vulnerable people and communities (vs, for example, applying only a narrower, legal definition of ‘harm’).

“We wanted to interrogate and explore further [people’s experiences of falling down the YouTube ‘rabbit hole’] and frankly confirm some of these stories — but then also just understand further what are some of the trends that emerged in that,” explained Brandi Geurkink, Mozilla’s senior manager of advocacy and the lead researcher for the project, discussing the aims of the research.

“My main feeling in doing this work was being — I guess — shocked that some of what we had expected to be the case was confirmed… It’s still a limited study in terms of the number of people involved and the methodology that we used but — even with that — it was quite simple; the data just showed that some of what we thought was confirmed.

“Things like the algorithm recommending content essentially accidentally, that it later is like ‘oops, this actually violates our policies; we shouldn’t have actively suggested that to people’… And things like the non-English-speaking user base having worse experiences — these are things you hear discussed a lot anecdotally and activists have raised these issues. But I was just like — oh wow, it’s actually coming out really clearly in our data.”

Mozilla says the crowdsourced research uncovered “numerous examples” of reported content that would likely or actually breach YouTube’s community guidelines — such as hate speech or debunked political and scientific misinformation.

But it also says the reports flagged a lot of what YouTube “may” consider ‘borderline content’. Aka, stuff that’s harder to categorize — junk/low quality videos that perhaps toe the acceptability line and may therefore be trickier for the platform’s algorithmic moderation systems to respond to (and thus content that may also survive the risk of a take down for longer).

However a related issue the report flags is that YouTube doesn’t provide a definition for borderline content — despite discussing the category in its own guidelines — hence, says Mozilla, that makes the researchers’ assumption that much of what the volunteers were reporting as ‘regretful’ would likely fall into YouTube’s own ‘borderline content’ category impossible to verify.

The challenge of independently studying the societal effects of Google’s tech and processes is a running theme underlying the research. But Mozilla’s report also accuses the tech giant of meeting YouTube criticism with “inertia and opacity”.

It’s not alone there either. Critics have long accused YouTube’s ad giant parent of profiting off-of engagement generated by hateful outrage and harmful disinformation — allowing “AI-generated bubbles of hate” surface ever more baleful (and thus stickily engaging) stuff, exposing unsuspecting YouTube users to increasingly unpleasant and extremist views, even as Google gets to shield its low grade content business under a user-generated content umbrella.

Indeed, ‘falling down the YouTube rabbit hole’ has become a well-trodden metaphor for discussing the process of unsuspecting Internet users being dragging into the darkest and nastiest corners of the web. This user reprogramming taking place in broad daylight via AI-generated suggestions that yell at people to follow the conspiracy breadcrumb trail right from inside a mainstream web platform.

Back as 2017 — when concern was riding high about online terrorism and the proliferation of ISIS content on social media — politicians in Europe were accusing YouTube’s algorithm of exactly this: Automating radicalization.

However it’s remained difficult to get hard data to back up anecdotal reports of individual YouTube users being ‘radicalized’ after viewing hours of extremist content or conspiracy theory junk on Google’s platform.

Ex-YouTube insider — Guillaume Chaslot — is one notable critic who’s sought to pull back the curtain shielding the proprietary tech from deeper scrutiny, via his algotransparency project.

Mozilla’s crowdsourced research adds to those efforts by sketching a broad — and broadly problematic — picture of the YouTube AI by collating reports of bad experiences from users themselves.

Of course externally sampling platform-level data that only Google holds in full (at its true depth and dimension) can’t be the whole picture — and self-reporting, in particular, may introduce its own set of biases into Mozilla’s data-set. But the problem of effectively studying big tech’s blackboxes is a key point accompanying the research, as Mozilla advocates for proper oversight of platform power.

In a series of recommendations the report calls for “robust transparency, scrutiny, and giving people control of recommendation algorithms” — arguing that without proper oversight of the platform, YouTube will continue to be harmful by mindlessly exposing people to damaging and braindead content.

The problematic lack of transparency around so much of how YouTube functions can be picked up from other details in the report. For example, Mozilla found that around 9% of recommended regrets (or almost 200 videos) had since been taken down — for a variety of not always clear reasons (sometimes, presumably, after the content was reported and judged by YouTube to have violated its guidelines).

Collectively, just this subset of videos had had a total of 160M views prior to being removed for whatever reason.

In other findings, the research found that regretful views tend to perform well on the platform.

A particular stark metric is that reported regrets acquired a full 70% more views per day than other videos watched by the volunteers on the platform — lending weight to the argument that YouTube’s engagement-optimising algorithms disproportionately select for triggering/misinforming content more often than quality (thoughtful/informing) stuff simply because it brings in the clicks.

While that might be great for Google’s ad business, it’s clearly a net negative for democratic societies which value truthful information over nonsense; genuine public debate over artificial/amplified binaries; and constructive civic cohesion over divisive tribalism.

But without legally-enforced transparency requirements on ad platforms — and, most likely, regulatory oversight and enforcement that features audit powers — these tech giants are going to continue to be incentivized to turn a blind eye and cash in at society’s expense.

Mozilla’s report also underlines instances where YouTube’s algorithms are clearly driven by a logic that’s unrelated to the content itself — with a finding that in 43.6% of the cases where the researchers had data about the videos a participant had watched before a reported regret the recommendation was completely unrelated to the previous video.

The report gives examples of some of these logic-defying AI content pivots/leaps/pitfalls — such as a person watching videos about the U.S. military and then being recommended a misogynistic video entitled ‘Man humiliates feminist in viral video.’

In another instance, a person watched a video about software rights and was then recommended a video about gun rights. So two rights make yet another wrong YouTube recommendation right there.

In a third example, a person watched an Art Garfunkel music video and was then recommended a political video entitled ‘Trump Debate Moderator EXPOSED as having Deep Democrat Ties, Media Bias Reaches BREAKING Point.’

To which the only sane response is, umm what???

YouTube’s output in such instances seems — at best — some sort of ‘AI brain fart’.

A generous interpretation might be that the algorithm got stupidly confused. Albeit, in a number of the examples cited in the report, the confusion is leading YouTube users toward content with a right-leaning political bias. Which seems, well, curious.

Asked what she views as the most concerning findings, Mozilla’s Geurkink told TechCrunch: “One is how clearly misinformation emerged as a dominant problem on the platform. I think that’s something, based on our work talking to Mozilla supporters and people from all around the world, that is a really obvious thing that people are concerned about online. So to see that that is what is emerging as the biggest problem with the YouTube algorithm is really concerning to me.”

She also highlighted the problem of the recommendations being worse for non-English-speaking users as another major concern, suggesting that global inequalities in users’ experiences of platform impacts “doesn’t get enough attention” — even when such issues do get discussed.

Responding to Mozilla’s report in a statement, a Google spokesperson sent us this statement:

“The goal of our recommendation system is to connect viewers with content they love and on any given day, more than 200 million videos are recommended on the homepage alone. Over 80 billion pieces of information is used to help inform our systems, including survey responses from viewers on what they want to watch. We constantly work to improve the experience on YouTube and over the past year alone, we’ve launched over 30 different changes to reduce recommendations of harmful content. Thanks to this change, consumption of borderline content that comes from our recommendations is now significantly below 1%.”

Google also claimed it welcomes research into YouTube — and suggested it’s exploring options to bring in external researchers to study the platform, without offering anything concrete on that front.

At the same time, its response queried how Mozilla’s study defines ‘regrettable’ content — and went on to claim that its own user surveys generally show users are satisfied with the content that YouTube recommends.

In further non-quotable remarks, Google noted that earlier this year it started disclosing a ‘violative view rate‘ (VVR) metric for YouTube — disclosing for the first time the percentage of views on YouTube that comes from content that violates its policies.

The most recent VVR stands at 0.16-0.18% — which Google says means that out of every 10,000 views on YouTube, 16-18 come from violative content. It said that figure is down by more than 70% when compared to the same quarter of 2017 — crediting its investments in machine learning as largely being responsible for the drop.

However, as Geurkink noted, the VVR is of limited use without Google releasing more data to contextualize and quantify how far its AI was involved in accelerating views of content its own rules state shouldn’t be viewed on its platform. Without that key data the suspicion must be that the VVR is a nice bit of misdirection.

“What would be going further than [VVR] — and what would be really, really helpful — is understanding what’s the role that the recommendation algorithm plays in this?” Geurkink told us on that, adding: “That’s what is a complete blackbox still. In the absence of greater transparency [Google’s] claims of progress have to be taken with a grain of salt.”

Google also flagged a 2019 change it made to how YouTube’s recommender algorithm handles ‘borderline content’ — aka, content that doesn’t violate policies but falls into a problematic grey area — saying that that tweak had also resulted in a 70% drop in watchtime for this type of content.

Although the company confirmed this borderline category is a moveable feast — saying it factors in changing trends as well as context and also works with experts to determine what’s get classed as borderline — which makes the aforementioned percentage drop pretty meaningless since there’s no fixed baseline to measure against.

It’s notable that Google’s response to Mozilla’s report makes no mention of the poor experience reported by survey participants in non-English-speaking markets. And Geurkink suggested that, in general, many of the claimed mitigating measures YouTube applies are geographically limited — i.e. to English-speaking markets like the US and UK. (Or at least arrive in those markets first, before a slower rollout to other places.) 

A January 2019 tweak to reduce amplification of conspiracy theory content in the US was only expanded to the UK market months later — in August — for example.

“YouTube, for the past few years, have only been reporting on their progress of recommendations of harmful or borderline content in the US and in English-speaking markets,” she also said. “And there are very few people questioning that — what about the rest of the world? To me that is something that really deserves more attention and more scrutiny.”

We asked Google to confirm whether it had since applied the 2019 conspiracy theory related changes globally — and a spokeswoman told us that it had. But the much higher rate of reports made to Mozilla of — a yes broader measure of — ‘regrettable’ content being made in non-English-speaking markets remains notable.

And while there could be others factors at play, which might explain some of the disproportionately higher reporting, the finding may also suggest that, where YouTube’s negative impacts are concerned, Google directs greatest resource at markets and languages where its reputational risk and the capacity of its machine learning tech to automate content categorization are strongest.

Yet any such unequal response to AI risk obviously means leaving some users at greater risk of harm than others — adding another harmful dimension and layer of unfairness to what is already a multi-faceted, many-headed-hydra of a problem.

It’s yet another reason why leaving it up to powerful platforms to rate their own AIs, mark their own homework and counter genuine concerns with self-serving PR is for the birds.

(In additional filler background remarks it sent us, Google described itself as the first company in the industry to incorporate “authoritativeness” into its search and discovery algorithms — without explaining when exactly it claims to have done that or how it imagined it would be able to deliver on its stated mission of ‘organizing the world’s information and making it universally accessible and useful’ without considering the relative value of information sources… So color us baffled at that claim. Most likely it’s a clumsy attempt to throw disinformation shade at rivals.)

Returning to the regulation point, an EU proposal — the Digital Services Act — is set to introduce some transparency requirements on large digital platforms, as part of a wider package of accountability measures. And asked about this Geurkink described the DSA as “a promising avenue for greater transparency”.

But she suggested the legislation needs to go further to tackle recommender systems like the YouTube AI.

“I think that transparency around recommender systems specifically and also people having control over the input of their own data and then the output of recommendations is really important — and is a place where the DSA is currently a bit sparse, so I think that’s where we really need to dig in,” she told us.

One idea she voiced support for is having a “data access framework” baked into the law — to enable vetted researchers to get more of the information they need to study powerful AI technologies — i.e. rather than the law trying to come up with “a laundry list of all of the different pieces of transparency and information that should be applicable”, as she put it.

The EU also now has a draft AI regulation on the table. The legislative plan takes a risk-based approach to regulating certain applications of artificial intelligence. However it’s not clear whether YouTube’s recommender system would fall under one of the more closely regulated categories — or, as seems more likely (at least with the initial Commission proposal), fall entirely outside the scope of the planned law.

“An earlier draft of the proposal talked about systems that manipulate human behavior which is essentially what recommender systems are. And one could also argue that’s the goal of advertising at large, in some sense. So it was sort of difficult to understand exactly where recommender systems would fall into that,” noted Geurkink.

“There might be a nice harmony between some of the robust data access provisions in the DSA and the new AI regulation,” she added. “I think transparency is what it comes down to, so anything that can provide that kind of greater transparency is a good thing.

“YouTube could also just provide a lot of this… We’ve been working on this for years now and we haven’t seen them take any meaningful action on this front but it’s also, I think, something that we want to keep in mind — legislation can obviously take years. So even if a few of our recommendations were taken up [by Google] that would be a really big step in the right direction.”

07 Jul 2021

YouTube’s recommender AI still a horrorshow, finds major crowdsourced study

For years YouTube’s video-recommending algorithm has stood accused of fuelling a grab-bag of societal ills by feeding users an AI-amplified diet of hate speech, political extremism and/or conspiracy junk/disinformation for the profiteering motive of trying to keep billions of eyeballs stuck to its ad inventory.

And while YouTube’s tech giant parent Google has, sporadically, responded to negative publicity flaring up around the algorithm’s antisocial recommendations — announcing a few policy tweaks or limiting/purging the odd hateful account — it’s not clear how far the platform’s penchant for promoting horribly unhealthy clickbait has actually been rebooted.

The suspicion remains nowhere near far enough.

New research published today by Mozilla backs that notion up, suggesting YouTube’s AI continues to puff up piles of ‘bottom-feeding’/low grade/divisive/disinforming content — stuff that tries to grab eyeballs by triggering people’s sense of outrage, sewing division/polarization or spreading baseless/harmful disinformation — which in turn implies that YouTube’s problem with recommending terrible stuff is indeed systemic; a side-effect of the platform’s rapacious appetite to harvest views to serve ads.

That YouTube’s AI is still — per Mozilla’s study — behaving so badly also suggests Google has been pretty successful at fuzzing criticism with superficial claims of reform.

The mainstay of its deflective success here is likely the primary protection mechanism of keeping the recommender engine’s algorithmic workings (and associated data) hidden from public view and external oversight — via the convenient shield of ‘commercial secrecy’.

But regulation that could help crack open proprietary AI blackboxes is now on the cards — at least in Europe.

To fix YouTube’s algorithm, Mozilla is calling for “common sense transparency laws, better oversight, and consumer pressure” — suggesting a combination of laws that mandate transparency into AI systems; protect independent researchers so they can interrogate algorithmic impacts; and empower platform users with robust controls (such as the ability to opt out of “personalized” recommendations) are what’s needed to rein in the worst excesses of the YouTube AI.

Regrets, YouTube users have had a few…

To gather data on specific recommendations being made made to YouTube users — information that Google does not routinely make available to external researchers — Mozilla took a crowdsourced approach, via a browser extension (called RegretsReporter) that lets users self-report YouTube videos they “regret” watching.

The tool can generate a report which includes details of the videos the user had been recommended, as well as earlier video views, to help build up a picture of how YouTube’s recommender system was functioning. (Or, well, ‘dysfunctioning’ as the case may be.)

The crowdsourced volunteers whose data fed Mozilla’s research reported a wide variety of ‘regrets’, including videos spreading COVID-19 fear-mongering, political misinformation and “wildly inappropriate” children’s cartoons, per the report — with the most frequently reported content categories being misinformation, violent/graphic content, hate speech and spam/scams.

A substantial majority (71%) of the regret reports came from videos that had been recommended by YouTube’s algorithm itself, underscoring the AI’s starring role in pushing junk into people’s eyeballs.

The research also found that recommended videos were 40% more likely to be reported by the volunteers than videos they’d searched for themselves.

Mozilla even found “several” instances when the recommender algorithmic put content in front of users that violated YouTube’s own community guidelines and/or was unrelated to the previous video watched. So a clear fail.

A very notable finding was that regrettable content appears to be a greater problem for YouTube users in non-English speaking countries: Mozilla found YouTube regrets were 60% higher in countries without English as a primary language — with Brazil, Germany and France generating what the report said were “particularly high” levels of regretful YouTubing. (And none of the three can be classed as minor international markets.)

Pandemic-related regrets were also especially prevalent in non-English speaking countries, per the report — a worrying detail to read in the middle of an ongoing global health crisis.

The crowdsourced study — which Mozilla bills as the largest-ever into YouTube’s recommender algorithm — drew on data from more than 37,000 YouTube users who installed the extension, although it was a subset of 1,162 volunteers — from 91 countries — who submitted reports that flagged 3,362 regrettable videos which the report draws on directly.

These reports were generated between July 2020 and May 2021.

What exactly does Mozilla mean by a YouTube “regret”? It says this is a crowdsourced concept based on users self-reporting bad experiences on YouTube, so it’s a subjective measure. But Mozilla argues that taking this “people-powered” approach centres the lived experiences of Internet users and is therefore helpful in foregrounding the experiences of marginalised and/or vulnerable people and communities (vs, for example, applying only a narrower, legal definition of ‘harm’).

“We wanted to interrogate and explore further [people’s experiences of falling down the YouTube ‘rabbit hole’] and frankly confirm some of these stories — but then also just understand further what are some of the trends that emerged in that,” explained Brandi Geurkink, Mozilla’s senior manager of advocacy and the lead researcher for the project, discussing the aims of the research.

“My main feeling in doing this work was being — I guess — shocked that some of what we had expected to be the case was confirmed… It’s still a limited study in terms of the number of people involved and the methodology that we used but — even with that — it was quite simple; the data just showed that some of what we thought was confirmed.

“Things like the algorithm recommending content essentially accidentally, that it later is like ‘oops, this actually violates our policies; we shouldn’t have actively suggested that to people’… And things like the non-English-speaking user base having worse experiences — these are things you hear discussed a lot anecdotally and activists have raised these issues. But I was just like — oh wow, it’s actually coming out really clearly in our data.”

Mozilla says the crowdsourced research uncovered “numerous examples” of reported content that would likely or actually breach YouTube’s community guidelines — such as hate speech or debunked political and scientific misinformation.

But it also says the reports flagged a lot of what YouTube “may” consider ‘borderline content’. Aka, stuff that’s harder to categorize — junk/low quality videos that perhaps toe the acceptability line and may therefore be trickier for the platform’s algorithmic moderation systems to respond to (and thus content that may also survive the risk of a take down for longer).

However a related issue the report flags is that YouTube doesn’t provide a definition for borderline content — despite discussing the category in its own guidelines — hence, says Mozilla, that makes the researchers’ assumption that much of what the volunteers were reporting as ‘regretful’ would likely fall into YouTube’s own ‘borderline content’ category impossible to verify.

The challenge of independently studying the societal effects of Google’s tech and processes is a running theme underlying the research. But Mozilla’s report also accuses the tech giant of meeting YouTube criticism with “inertia and opacity”.

It’s not alone there either. Critics have long accused YouTube’s ad giant parent of profiting off-of engagement generated by hateful outrage and harmful disinformation — allowing “AI-generated bubbles of hate” surface ever more baleful (and thus stickily engaging) stuff, exposing unsuspecting YouTube users to increasingly unpleasant and extremist views, even as Google gets to shield its low grade content business under a user-generated content umbrella.

Indeed, ‘falling down the YouTube rabbit hole’ has become a well-trodden metaphor for discussing the process of unsuspecting Internet users being dragging into the darkest and nastiest corners of the web. This user reprogramming taking place in broad daylight via AI-generated suggestions that yell at people to follow the conspiracy breadcrumb trail right from inside a mainstream web platform.

Back as 2017 — when concern was riding high about online terrorism and the proliferation of ISIS content on social media — politicians in Europe were accusing YouTube’s algorithm of exactly this: Automating radicalization.

However it’s remained difficult to get hard data to back up anecdotal reports of individual YouTube users being ‘radicalized’ after viewing hours of extremist content or conspiracy theory junk on Google’s platform.

Ex-YouTube insider — Guillaume Chaslot — is one notable critic who’s sought to pull back the curtain shielding the proprietary tech from deeper scrutiny, via his algotransparency project.

Mozilla’s crowdsourced research adds to those efforts by sketching a broad — and broadly problematic — picture of the YouTube AI by collating reports of bad experiences from users themselves.

Of course externally sampling platform-level data that only Google holds in full (at its true depth and dimension) can’t be the whole picture — and self-reporting, in particular, may introduce its own set of biases into Mozilla’s data-set. But the problem of effectively studying big tech’s blackboxes is a key point accompanying the research, as Mozilla advocates for proper oversight of platform power.

In a series of recommendations the report calls for “robust transparency, scrutiny, and giving people control of recommendation algorithms” — arguing that without proper oversight of the platform, YouTube will continue to be harmful by mindlessly exposing people to damaging and braindead content.

The problematic lack of transparency around so much of how YouTube functions can be picked up from other details in the report. For example, Mozilla found that around 9% of recommended regrets (or almost 200 videos) had since been taken down — for a variety of not always clear reasons (sometimes, presumably, after the content was reported and judged by YouTube to have violated its guidelines).

Collectively, just this subset of videos had had a total of 160M views prior to being removed for whatever reason.

In other findings, the research found that regretful views tend to perform well on the platform.

A particular stark metric is that reported regrets acquired a full 70% more views per day than other videos watched by the volunteers on the platform — lending weight to the argument that YouTube’s engagement-optimising algorithms disproportionately select for triggering/misinforming content more often than quality (thoughtful/informing) stuff simply because it brings in the clicks.

While that might be great for Google’s ad business, it’s clearly a net negative for democratic societies which value truthful information over nonsense; genuine public debate over artificial/amplified binaries; and constructive civic cohesion over divisive tribalism.

But without legally-enforced transparency requirements on ad platforms — and, most likely, regulatory oversight and enforcement that features audit powers — these tech giants are going to continue to be incentivized to turn a blind eye and cash in at society’s expense.

Mozilla’s report also underlines instances where YouTube’s algorithms are clearly driven by a logic that’s unrelated to the content itself — with a finding that in 43.6% of the cases where the researchers had data about the videos a participant had watched before a reported regret the recommendation was completely unrelated to the previous video.

The report gives examples of some of these logic-defying AI content pivots/leaps/pitfalls — such as a person watching videos about the U.S. military and then being recommended a misogynistic video entitled ‘Man humiliates feminist in viral video.’

In another instance, a person watched a video about software rights and was then recommended a video about gun rights. So two rights make yet another wrong YouTube recommendation right there.

In a third example, a person watched an Art Garfunkel music video and was then recommended a political video entitled ‘Trump Debate Moderator EXPOSED as having Deep Democrat Ties, Media Bias Reaches BREAKING Point.’

To which the only sane response is, umm what???

YouTube’s output in such instances seems — at best — some sort of ‘AI brain fart’.

A generous interpretation might be that the algorithm got stupidly confused. Albeit, in a number of the examples cited in the report, the confusion is leading YouTube users toward content with a right-leaning political bias. Which seems, well, curious.

Asked what she views as the most concerning findings, Mozilla’s Geurkink told TechCrunch: “One is how clearly misinformation emerged as a dominant problem on the platform. I think that’s something, based on our work talking to Mozilla supporters and people from all around the world, that is a really obvious thing that people are concerned about online. So to see that that is what is emerging as the biggest problem with the YouTube algorithm is really concerning to me.”

She also highlighted the problem of the recommendations being worse for non-English-speaking users as another major concern, suggesting that global inequalities in users’ experiences of platform impacts “doesn’t get enough attention” — even when such issues do get discussed.

Responding to Mozilla’s report in a statement, a Google spokesperson sent us this statement:

“The goal of our recommendation system is to connect viewers with content they love and on any given day, more than 200 million videos are recommended on the homepage alone. Over 80 billion pieces of information is used to help inform our systems, including survey responses from viewers on what they want to watch. We constantly work to improve the experience on YouTube and over the past year alone, we’ve launched over 30 different changes to reduce recommendations of harmful content. Thanks to this change, consumption of borderline content that comes from our recommendations is now significantly below 1%.”

Google also claimed it welcomes research into YouTube — and suggested it’s exploring options to bring in external researchers to study the platform, without offering anything concrete on that front.

At the same time, its response queried how Mozilla’s study defines ‘regrettable’ content — and went on to claim that its own user surveys generally show users are satisfied with the content that YouTube recommends.

In further non-quotable remarks, Google noted that earlier this year it started disclosing a ‘violative view rate‘ (VVR) metric for YouTube — disclosing for the first time the percentage of views on YouTube that comes from content that violates its policies.

The most recent VVR stands at 0.16-0.18% — which Google says means that out of every 10,000 views on YouTube, 16-18 come from violative content. It said that figure is down by more than 70% when compared to the same quarter of 2017 — crediting its investments in machine learning as largely being responsible for the drop.

However, as Geurkink noted, the VVR is of limited use without Google releasing more data to contextualize and quantify how far its AI was involved in accelerating views of content its own rules state shouldn’t be viewed on its platform. Without that key data the suspicion must be that the VVR is a nice bit of misdirection.

“What would be going further than [VVR] — and what would be really, really helpful — is understanding what’s the role that the recommendation algorithm plays in this?” Geurkink told us on that, adding: “That’s what is a complete blackbox still. In the absence of greater transparency [Google’s] claims of progress have to be taken with a grain of salt.”

Google also flagged a 2019 change it made to how YouTube’s recommender algorithm handles ‘borderline content’ — aka, content that doesn’t violate policies but falls into a problematic grey area — saying that that tweak had also resulted in a 70% drop in watchtime for this type of content.

Although the company confirmed this borderline category is a moveable feast — saying it factors in changing trends as well as context and also works with experts to determine what’s get classed as borderline — which makes the aforementioned percentage drop pretty meaningless since there’s no fixed baseline to measure against.

It’s notable that Google’s response to Mozilla’s report makes no mention of the poor experience reported by survey participants in non-English-speaking markets. And Geurkink suggested that, in general, many of the claimed mitigating measures YouTube applies are geographically limited — i.e. to English-speaking markets like the US and UK. (Or at least arrive in those markets first, before a slower rollout to other places.) 

A January 2019 tweak to reduce amplification of conspiracy theory content in the US was only expanded to the UK market months later — in August — for example.

“YouTube, for the past few years, have only been reporting on their progress of recommendations of harmful or borderline content in the US and in English-speaking markets,” she also said. “And there are very few people questioning that — what about the rest of the world? To me that is something that really deserves more attention and more scrutiny.”

We asked Google to confirm whether it had since applied the 2019 conspiracy theory related changes globally — and a spokeswoman told us that it had. But the much higher rate of reports made to Mozilla of — a yes broader measure of — ‘regrettable’ content being made in non-English-speaking markets remains notable.

And while there could be others factors at play, which might explain some of the disproportionately higher reporting, the finding may also suggest that, where YouTube’s negative impacts are concerned, Google directs greatest resource at markets and languages where its reputational risk and the capacity of its machine learning tech to automate content categorization are strongest.

Yet any such unequal response to AI risk obviously means leaving some users at greater risk of harm than others — adding another harmful dimension and layer of unfairness to what is already a multi-faceted, many-headed-hydra of a problem.

It’s yet another reason why leaving it up to powerful platforms to rate their own AIs, mark their own homework and counter genuine concerns with self-serving PR is for the birds.

(In additional filler background remarks it sent us, Google described itself as the first company in the industry to incorporate “authoritativeness” into its search and discovery algorithms — without explaining when exactly it claims to have done that or how it imagined it would be able to deliver on its stated mission of ‘organizing the world’s information and making it universally accessible and useful’ without considering the relative value of information sources… So color us baffled at that claim. Most likely it’s a clumsy attempt to throw disinformation shade at rivals.)

Returning to the regulation point, an EU proposal — the Digital Services Act — is set to introduce some transparency requirements on large digital platforms, as part of a wider package of accountability measures. And asked about this Geurkink described the DSA as “a promising avenue for greater transparency”.

But she suggested the legislation needs to go further to tackle recommender systems like the YouTube AI.

“I think that transparency around recommender systems specifically and also people having control over the input of their own data and then the output of recommendations is really important — and is a place where the DSA is currently a bit sparse, so I think that’s where we really need to dig in,” she told us.

One idea she voiced support for is having a “data access framework” baked into the law — to enable vetted researchers to get more of the information they need to study powerful AI technologies — i.e. rather than the law trying to come up with “a laundry list of all of the different pieces of transparency and information that should be applicable”, as she put it.

The EU also now has a draft AI regulation on the table. The legislative plan takes a risk-based approach to regulating certain applications of artificial intelligence. However it’s not clear whether YouTube’s recommender system would fall under one of the more closely regulated categories — or, as seems more likely (at least with the initial Commission proposal), fall entirely outside the scope of the planned law.

“An earlier draft of the proposal talked about systems that manipulate human behavior which is essentially what recommender systems are. And one could also argue that’s the goal of advertising at large, in some sense. So it was sort of difficult to understand exactly where recommender systems would fall into that,” noted Geurkink.

“There might be a nice harmony between some of the robust data access provisions in the DSA and the new AI regulation,” she added. “I think transparency is what it comes down to, so anything that can provide that kind of greater transparency is a good thing.

“YouTube could also just provide a lot of this… We’ve been working on this for years now and we haven’t seen them take any meaningful action on this front but it’s also, I think, something that we want to keep in mind — legislation can obviously take years. So even if a few of our recommendations were taken up [by Google] that would be a really big step in the right direction.”

07 Jul 2021

YouTube’s recommender AI still a horrorshow, finds major crowdsourced study

For years YouTube’s video-recommending algorithm has stood accused of fuelling a grab-bag of societal ills by feeding users an AI-amplified diet of hate speech, political extremism and/or conspiracy junk/disinformation for the profiteering motive of trying to keep billions of eyeballs stuck to its ad inventory.

And while YouTube’s tech giant parent Google has, sporadically, responded to negative publicity flaring up around the algorithm’s antisocial recommendations — announcing a few policy tweaks or limiting/purging the odd hateful account — it’s not clear how far the platform’s penchant for promoting horribly unhealthy clickbait has actually been rebooted.

The suspicion remains nowhere near far enough.

New research published today by Mozilla backs that notion up, suggesting YouTube’s AI continues to puff up piles of ‘bottom-feeding’/low grade/divisive/disinforming content — stuff that tries to grab eyeballs by triggering people’s sense of outrage, sewing division/polarization or spreading baseless/harmful disinformation — which in turn implies that YouTube’s problem with recommending terrible stuff is indeed systemic; a side-effect of the platform’s rapacious appetite to harvest views to serve ads.

That YouTube’s AI is still — per Mozilla’s study — behaving so badly also suggests Google has been pretty successful at fuzzing criticism with superficial claims of reform.

The mainstay of its deflective success here is likely the primary protection mechanism of keeping the recommender engine’s algorithmic workings (and associated data) hidden from public view and external oversight — via the convenient shield of ‘commercial secrecy’.

But regulation that could help crack open proprietary AI blackboxes is now on the cards — at least in Europe.

To fix YouTube’s algorithm, Mozilla is calling for “common sense transparency laws, better oversight, and consumer pressure” — suggesting a combination of laws that mandate transparency into AI systems; protect independent researchers so they can interrogate algorithmic impacts; and empower platform users with robust controls (such as the ability to opt out of “personalized” recommendations) are what’s needed to rein in the worst excesses of the YouTube AI.

Regrets, YouTube users have had a few…

To gather data on specific recommendations being made made to YouTube users — information that Google does not routinely make available to external researchers — Mozilla took a crowdsourced approach, via a browser extension (called RegretsReporter) that lets users self-report YouTube videos they “regret” watching.

The tool can generate a report which includes details of the videos the user had been recommended, as well as earlier video views, to help build up a picture of how YouTube’s recommender system was functioning. (Or, well, ‘dysfunctioning’ as the case may be.)

The crowdsourced volunteers whose data fed Mozilla’s research reported a wide variety of ‘regrets’, including videos spreading COVID-19 fear-mongering, political misinformation and “wildly inappropriate” children’s cartoons, per the report — with the most frequently reported content categories being misinformation, violent/graphic content, hate speech and spam/scams.

A substantial majority (71%) of the regret reports came from videos that had been recommended by YouTube’s algorithm itself, underscoring the AI’s starring role in pushing junk into people’s eyeballs.

The research also found that recommended videos were 40% more likely to be reported by the volunteers than videos they’d searched for themselves.

Mozilla even found “several” instances when the recommender algorithmic put content in front of users that violated YouTube’s own community guidelines and/or was unrelated to the previous video watched. So a clear fail.

A very notable finding was that regrettable content appears to be a greater problem for YouTube users in non-English speaking countries: Mozilla found YouTube regrets were 60% higher in countries without English as a primary language — with Brazil, Germany and France generating what the report said were “particularly high” levels of regretful YouTubing. (And none of the three can be classed as minor international markets.)

Pandemic-related regrets were also especially prevalent in non-English speaking countries, per the report — a worrying detail to read in the middle of an ongoing global health crisis.

The crowdsourced study — which Mozilla bills as the largest-ever into YouTube’s recommender algorithm — drew on data from more than 37,000 YouTube users who installed the extension, although it was a subset of 1,162 volunteers — from 91 countries — who submitted reports that flagged 3,362 regrettable videos which the report draws on directly.

These reports were generated between July 2020 and May 2021.

What exactly does Mozilla mean by a YouTube “regret”? It says this is a crowdsourced concept based on users self-reporting bad experiences on YouTube, so it’s a subjective measure. But Mozilla argues that taking this “people-powered” approach centres the lived experiences of Internet users and is therefore helpful in foregrounding the experiences of marginalised and/or vulnerable people and communities (vs, for example, applying only a narrower, legal definition of ‘harm’).

“We wanted to interrogate and explore further [people’s experiences of falling down the YouTube ‘rabbit hole’] and frankly confirm some of these stories — but then also just understand further what are some of the trends that emerged in that,” explained Brandi Geurkink, Mozilla’s senior manager of advocacy and the lead researcher for the project, discussing the aims of the research.

“My main feeling in doing this work was being — I guess — shocked that some of what we had expected to be the case was confirmed… It’s still a limited study in terms of the number of people involved and the methodology that we used but — even with that — it was quite simple; the data just showed that some of what we thought was confirmed.

“Things like the algorithm recommending content essentially accidentally, that it later is like ‘oops, this actually violates our policies; we shouldn’t have actively suggested that to people’… And things like the non-English-speaking user base having worse experiences — these are things you hear discussed a lot anecdotally and activists have raised these issues. But I was just like — oh wow, it’s actually coming out really clearly in our data.”

Mozilla says the crowdsourced research uncovered “numerous examples” of reported content that would likely or actually breach YouTube’s community guidelines — such as hate speech or debunked political and scientific misinformation.

But it also says the reports flagged a lot of what YouTube “may” consider ‘borderline content’. Aka, stuff that’s harder to categorize — junk/low quality videos that perhaps toe the acceptability line and may therefore be trickier for the platform’s algorithmic moderation systems to respond to (and thus content that may also survive the risk of a take down for longer).

However a related issue the report flags is that YouTube doesn’t provide a definition for borderline content — despite discussing the category in its own guidelines — hence, says Mozilla, that makes the researchers’ assumption that much of what the volunteers were reporting as ‘regretful’ would likely fall into YouTube’s own ‘borderline content’ category impossible to verify.

The challenge of independently studying the societal effects of Google’s tech and processes is a running theme underlying the research. But Mozilla’s report also accuses the tech giant of meeting YouTube criticism with “inertia and opacity”.

It’s not alone there either. Critics have long accused YouTube’s ad giant parent of profiting off-of engagement generated by hateful outrage and harmful disinformation — allowing “AI-generated bubbles of hate” surface ever more baleful (and thus stickily engaging) stuff, exposing unsuspecting YouTube users to increasingly unpleasant and extremist views, even as Google gets to shield its low grade content business under a user-generated content umbrella.

Indeed, ‘falling down the YouTube rabbit hole’ has become a well-trodden metaphor for discussing the process of unsuspecting Internet users being dragging into the darkest and nastiest corners of the web. This user reprogramming taking place in broad daylight via AI-generated suggestions that yell at people to follow the conspiracy breadcrumb trail right from inside a mainstream web platform.

Back as 2017 — when concern was riding high about online terrorism and the proliferation of ISIS content on social media — politicians in Europe were accusing YouTube’s algorithm of exactly this: Automating radicalization.

However it’s remained difficult to get hard data to back up anecdotal reports of individual YouTube users being ‘radicalized’ after viewing hours of extremist content or conspiracy theory junk on Google’s platform.

Ex-YouTube insider — Guillaume Chaslot — is one notable critic who’s sought to pull back the curtain shielding the proprietary tech from deeper scrutiny, via his algotransparency project.

Mozilla’s crowdsourced research adds to those efforts by sketching a broad — and broadly problematic — picture of the YouTube AI by collating reports of bad experiences from users themselves.

Of course externally sampling platform-level data that only Google holds in full (at its true depth and dimension) can’t be the whole picture — and self-reporting, in particular, may introduce its own set of biases into Mozilla’s data-set. But the problem of effectively studying big tech’s blackboxes is a key point accompanying the research, as Mozilla advocates for proper oversight of platform power.

In a series of recommendations the report calls for “robust transparency, scrutiny, and giving people control of recommendation algorithms” — arguing that without proper oversight of the platform, YouTube will continue to be harmful by mindlessly exposing people to damaging and braindead content.

The problematic lack of transparency around so much of how YouTube functions can be picked up from other details in the report. For example, Mozilla found that around 9% of recommended regrets (or almost 200 videos) had since been taken down — for a variety of not always clear reasons (sometimes, presumably, after the content was reported and judged by YouTube to have violated its guidelines).

Collectively, just this subset of videos had had a total of 160M views prior to being removed for whatever reason.

In other findings, the research found that regretful views tend to perform well on the platform.

A particular stark metric is that reported regrets acquired a full 70% more views per day than other videos watched by the volunteers on the platform — lending weight to the argument that YouTube’s engagement-optimising algorithms disproportionately select for triggering/misinforming content more often than quality (thoughtful/informing) stuff simply because it brings in the clicks.

While that might be great for Google’s ad business, it’s clearly a net negative for democratic societies which value truthful information over nonsense; genuine public debate over artificial/amplified binaries; and constructive civic cohesion over divisive tribalism.

But without legally-enforced transparency requirements on ad platforms — and, most likely, regulatory oversight and enforcement that features audit powers — these tech giants are going to continue to be incentivized to turn a blind eye and cash in at society’s expense.

Mozilla’s report also underlines instances where YouTube’s algorithms are clearly driven by a logic that’s unrelated to the content itself — with a finding that in 43.6% of the cases where the researchers had data about the videos a participant had watched before a reported regret the recommendation was completely unrelated to the previous video.

The report gives examples of some of these logic-defying AI content pivots/leaps/pitfalls — such as a person watching videos about the U.S. military and then being recommended a misogynistic video entitled ‘Man humiliates feminist in viral video.’

In another instance, a person watched a video about software rights and was then recommended a video about gun rights. So two rights make yet another wrong YouTube recommendation right there.

In a third example, a person watched an Art Garfunkel music video and was then recommended a political video entitled ‘Trump Debate Moderator EXPOSED as having Deep Democrat Ties, Media Bias Reaches BREAKING Point.’

To which the only sane response is, umm what???

YouTube’s output in such instances seems — at best — some sort of ‘AI brain fart’.

A generous interpretation might be that the algorithm got stupidly confused. Albeit, in a number of the examples cited in the report, the confusion is leading YouTube users toward content with a right-leaning political bias. Which seems, well, curious.

Asked what she views as the most concerning findings, Mozilla’s Geurkink told TechCrunch: “One is how clearly misinformation emerged as a dominant problem on the platform. I think that’s something, based on our work talking to Mozilla supporters and people from all around the world, that is a really obvious thing that people are concerned about online. So to see that that is what is emerging as the biggest problem with the YouTube algorithm is really concerning to me.”

She also highlighted the problem of the recommendations being worse for non-English-speaking users as another major concern, suggesting that global inequalities in users’ experiences of platform impacts “doesn’t get enough attention” — even when such issues do get discussed.

Responding to Mozilla’s report in a statement, a Google spokesperson sent us this statement:

“The goal of our recommendation system is to connect viewers with content they love and on any given day, more than 200 million videos are recommended on the homepage alone. Over 80 billion pieces of information is used to help inform our systems, including survey responses from viewers on what they want to watch. We constantly work to improve the experience on YouTube and over the past year alone, we’ve launched over 30 different changes to reduce recommendations of harmful content. Thanks to this change, consumption of borderline content that comes from our recommendations is now significantly below 1%.”

Google also claimed it welcomes research into YouTube — and suggested it’s exploring options to bring in external researchers to study the platform, without offering anything concrete on that front.

At the same time, its response queried how Mozilla’s study defines ‘regrettable’ content — and went on to claim that its own user surveys generally show users are satisfied with the content that YouTube recommends.

In further non-quotable remarks, Google noted that earlier this year it started disclosing a ‘violative view rate‘ (VVR) metric for YouTube — disclosing for the first time the percentage of views on YouTube that comes from content that violates its policies.

The most recent VVR stands at 0.16-0.18% — which Google says means that out of every 10,000 views on YouTube, 16-18 come from violative content. It said that figure is down by more than 70% when compared to the same quarter of 2017 — crediting its investments in machine learning as largely being responsible for the drop.

However, as Geurkink noted, the VVR is of limited use without Google releasing more data to contextualize and quantify how far its AI was involved in accelerating views of content its own rules state shouldn’t be viewed on its platform. Without that key data the suspicion must be that the VVR is a nice bit of misdirection.

“What would be going further than [VVR] — and what would be really, really helpful — is understanding what’s the role that the recommendation algorithm plays in this?” Geurkink told us on that, adding: “That’s what is a complete blackbox still. In the absence of greater transparency [Google’s] claims of progress have to be taken with a grain of salt.”

Google also flagged a 2019 change it made to how YouTube’s recommender algorithm handles ‘borderline content’ — aka, content that doesn’t violate policies but falls into a problematic grey area — saying that that tweak had also resulted in a 70% drop in watchtime for this type of content.

Although the company confirmed this borderline category is a moveable feast — saying it factors in changing trends as well as context and also works with experts to determine what’s get classed as borderline — which makes the aforementioned percentage drop pretty meaningless since there’s no fixed baseline to measure against.

It’s notable that Google’s response to Mozilla’s report makes no mention of the poor experience reported by survey participants in non-English-speaking markets. And Geurkink suggested that, in general, many of the claimed mitigating measures YouTube applies are geographically limited — i.e. to English-speaking markets like the US and UK. (Or at least arrive in those markets first, before a slower rollout to other places.) 

A January 2019 tweak to reduce amplification of conspiracy theory content in the US was only expanded to the UK market months later — in August — for example.

“YouTube, for the past few years, have only been reporting on their progress of recommendations of harmful or borderline content in the US and in English-speaking markets,” she also said. “And there are very few people questioning that — what about the rest of the world? To me that is something that really deserves more attention and more scrutiny.”

We asked Google to confirm whether it had since applied the 2019 conspiracy theory related changes globally — and a spokeswoman told us that it had. But the much higher rate of reports made to Mozilla of — a yes broader measure of — ‘regrettable’ content being made in non-English-speaking markets remains notable.

And while there could be others factors at play, which might explain some of the disproportionately higher reporting, the finding may also suggest that, where YouTube’s negative impacts are concerned, Google directs greatest resource at markets and languages where its reputational risk and the capacity of its machine learning tech to automate content categorization are strongest.

Yet any such unequal response to AI risk obviously means leaving some users at greater risk of harm than others — adding another harmful dimension and layer of unfairness to what is already a multi-faceted, many-headed-hydra of a problem.

It’s yet another reason why leaving it up to powerful platforms to rate their own AIs, mark their own homework and counter genuine concerns with self-serving PR is for the birds.

(In additional filler background remarks it sent us, Google described itself as the first company in the industry to incorporate “authoritativeness” into its search and discovery algorithms — without explaining when exactly it claims to have done that or how it imagined it would be able to deliver on its stated mission of ‘organizing the world’s information and making it universally accessible and useful’ without considering the relative value of information sources… So color us baffled at that claim. Most likely it’s a clumsy attempt to throw disinformation shade at rivals.)

Returning to the regulation point, an EU proposal — the Digital Services Act — is set to introduce some transparency requirements on large digital platforms, as part of a wider package of accountability measures. And asked about this Geurkink described the DSA as “a promising avenue for greater transparency”.

But she suggested the legislation needs to go further to tackle recommender systems like the YouTube AI.

“I think that transparency around recommender systems specifically and also people having control over the input of their own data and then the output of recommendations is really important — and is a place where the DSA is currently a bit sparse, so I think that’s where we really need to dig in,” she told us.

One idea she voiced support for is having a “data access framework” baked into the law — to enable vetted researchers to get more of the information they need to study powerful AI technologies — i.e. rather than the law trying to come up with “a laundry list of all of the different pieces of transparency and information that should be applicable”, as she put it.

The EU also now has a draft AI regulation on the table. The legislative plan takes a risk-based approach to regulating certain applications of artificial intelligence. However it’s not clear whether YouTube’s recommender system would fall under one of the more closely regulated categories — or, as seems more likely (at least with the initial Commission proposal), fall entirely outside the scope of the planned law.

“An earlier draft of the proposal talked about systems that manipulate human behavior which is essentially what recommender systems are. And one could also argue that’s the goal of advertising at large, in some sense. So it was sort of difficult to understand exactly where recommender systems would fall into that,” noted Geurkink.

“There might be a nice harmony between some of the robust data access provisions in the DSA and the new AI regulation,” she added. “I think transparency is what it comes down to, so anything that can provide that kind of greater transparency is a good thing.

“YouTube could also just provide a lot of this… We’ve been working on this for years now and we haven’t seen them take any meaningful action on this front but it’s also, I think, something that we want to keep in mind — legislation can obviously take years. So even if a few of our recommendations were taken up [by Google] that would be a really big step in the right direction.”

07 Jul 2021

YouTube’s recommender AI still a horrorshow, finds major crowdsourced study

For years YouTube’s video-recommending algorithm has stood accused of fuelling a grab-bag of societal ills by feeding users an AI-amplified diet of hate speech, political extremism and/or conspiracy junk/disinformation for the profiteering motive of trying to keep billions of eyeballs stuck to its ad inventory.

And while YouTube’s tech giant parent Google has, sporadically, responded to negative publicity flaring up around the algorithm’s antisocial recommendations — announcing a few policy tweaks or limiting/purging the odd hateful account — it’s not clear how far the platform’s penchant for promoting horribly unhealthy clickbait has actually been rebooted.

The suspicion remains nowhere near far enough.

New research published today by Mozilla backs that notion up, suggesting YouTube’s AI continues to puff up piles of ‘bottom-feeding’/low grade/divisive/disinforming content — stuff that tries to grab eyeballs by triggering people’s sense of outrage, sewing division/polarization or spreading baseless/harmful disinformation — which in turn implies that YouTube’s problem with recommending terrible stuff is indeed systemic; a side-effect of the platform’s rapacious appetite to harvest views to serve ads.

That YouTube’s AI is still — per Mozilla’s study — behaving so badly also suggests Google has been pretty successful at fuzzing criticism with superficial claims of reform.

The mainstay of its deflective success here is likely the primary protection mechanism of keeping the recommender engine’s algorithmic workings (and associated data) hidden from public view and external oversight — via the convenient shield of ‘commercial secrecy’.

But regulation that could help crack open proprietary AI blackboxes is now on the cards — at least in Europe.

To fix YouTube’s algorithm, Mozilla is calling for “common sense transparency laws, better oversight, and consumer pressure” — suggesting a combination of laws that mandate transparency into AI systems; protect independent researchers so they can interrogate algorithmic impacts; and empower platform users with robust controls (such as the ability to opt out of “personalized” recommendations) are what’s needed to rein in the worst excesses of the YouTube AI.

Regrets, YouTube users have had a few…

To gather data on specific recommendations being made made to YouTube users — information that Google does not routinely make available to external researchers — Mozilla took a crowdsourced approach, via a browser extension (called RegretsReporter) that lets users self-report YouTube videos they “regret” watching.

The tool can generate a report which includes details of the videos the user had been recommended, as well as earlier video views, to help build up a picture of how YouTube’s recommender system was functioning. (Or, well, ‘dysfunctioning’ as the case may be.)

The crowdsourced volunteers whose data fed Mozilla’s research reported a wide variety of ‘regrets’, including videos spreading COVID-19 fear-mongering, political misinformation and “wildly inappropriate” children’s cartoons, per the report — with the most frequently reported content categories being misinformation, violent/graphic content, hate speech and spam/scams.

A substantial majority (71%) of the regret reports came from videos that had been recommended by YouTube’s algorithm itself, underscoring the AI’s starring role in pushing junk into people’s eyeballs.

The research also found that recommended videos were 40% more likely to be reported by the volunteers than videos they’d searched for themselves.

Mozilla even found “several” instances when the recommender algorithmic put content in front of users that violated YouTube’s own community guidelines and/or was unrelated to the previous video watched. So a clear fail.

A very notable finding was that regrettable content appears to be a greater problem for YouTube users in non-English speaking countries: Mozilla found YouTube regrets were 60% higher in countries without English as a primary language — with Brazil, Germany and France generating what the report said were “particularly high” levels of regretful YouTubing. (And none of the three can be classed as minor international markets.)

Pandemic-related regrets were also especially prevalent in non-English speaking countries, per the report — a worrying detail to read in the middle of an ongoing global health crisis.

The crowdsourced study — which Mozilla bills as the largest-ever into YouTube’s recommender algorithm — drew on data from more than 37,000 YouTube users who installed the extension, although it was a subset of 1,162 volunteers — from 91 countries — who submitted reports that flagged 3,362 regrettable videos which the report draws on directly.

These reports were generated between July 2020 and May 2021.

What exactly does Mozilla mean by a YouTube “regret”? It says this is a crowdsourced concept based on users self-reporting bad experiences on YouTube, so it’s a subjective measure. But Mozilla argues that taking this “people-powered” approach centres the lived experiences of Internet users and is therefore helpful in foregrounding the experiences of marginalised and/or vulnerable people and communities (vs, for example, applying only a narrower, legal definition of ‘harm’).

“We wanted to interrogate and explore further [people’s experiences of falling down the YouTube ‘rabbit hole’] and frankly confirm some of these stories — but then also just understand further what are some of the trends that emerged in that,” explained Brandi Geurkink, Mozilla’s senior manager of advocacy and the lead researcher for the project, discussing the aims of the research.

“My main feeling in doing this work was being — I guess — shocked that some of what we had expected to be the case was confirmed… It’s still a limited study in terms of the number of people involved and the methodology that we used but — even with that — it was quite simple; the data just showed that some of what we thought was confirmed.

“Things like the algorithm recommending content essentially accidentally, that it later is like ‘oops, this actually violates our policies; we shouldn’t have actively suggested that to people’… And things like the non-English-speaking user base having worse experiences — these are things you hear discussed a lot anecdotally and activists have raised these issues. But I was just like — oh wow, it’s actually coming out really clearly in our data.”

Mozilla says the crowdsourced research uncovered “numerous examples” of reported content that would likely or actually breach YouTube’s community guidelines — such as hate speech or debunked political and scientific misinformation.

But it also says the reports flagged a lot of what YouTube “may” consider ‘borderline content’. Aka, stuff that’s harder to categorize — junk/low quality videos that perhaps toe the acceptability line and may therefore be trickier for the platform’s algorithmic moderation systems to respond to (and thus content that may also survive the risk of a take down for longer).

However a related issue the report flags is that YouTube doesn’t provide a definition for borderline content — despite discussing the category in its own guidelines — hence, says Mozilla, that makes the researchers’ assumption that much of what the volunteers were reporting as ‘regretful’ would likely fall into YouTube’s own ‘borderline content’ category impossible to verify.

The challenge of independently studying the societal effects of Google’s tech and processes is a running theme underlying the research. But Mozilla’s report also accuses the tech giant of meeting YouTube criticism with “inertia and opacity”.

It’s not alone there either. Critics have long accused YouTube’s ad giant parent of profiting off-of engagement generated by hateful outrage and harmful disinformation — allowing “AI-generated bubbles of hate” surface ever more baleful (and thus stickily engaging) stuff, exposing unsuspecting YouTube users to increasingly unpleasant and extremist views, even as Google gets to shield its low grade content business under a user-generated content umbrella.

Indeed, ‘falling down the YouTube rabbit hole’ has become a well-trodden metaphor for discussing the process of unsuspecting Internet users being dragging into the darkest and nastiest corners of the web. This user reprogramming taking place in broad daylight via AI-generated suggestions that yell at people to follow the conspiracy breadcrumb trail right from inside a mainstream web platform.

Back as 2017 — when concern was riding high about online terrorism and the proliferation of ISIS content on social media — politicians in Europe were accusing YouTube’s algorithm of exactly this: Automating radicalization.

However it’s remained difficult to get hard data to back up anecdotal reports of individual YouTube users being ‘radicalized’ after viewing hours of extremist content or conspiracy theory junk on Google’s platform.

Ex-YouTube insider — Guillaume Chaslot — is one notable critic who’s sought to pull back the curtain shielding the proprietary tech from deeper scrutiny, via his algotransparency project.

Mozilla’s crowdsourced research adds to those efforts by sketching a broad — and broadly problematic — picture of the YouTube AI by collating reports of bad experiences from users themselves.

Of course externally sampling platform-level data that only Google holds in full (at its true depth and dimension) can’t be the whole picture — and self-reporting, in particular, may introduce its own set of biases into Mozilla’s data-set. But the problem of effectively studying big tech’s blackboxes is a key point accompanying the research, as Mozilla advocates for proper oversight of platform power.

In a series of recommendations the report calls for “robust transparency, scrutiny, and giving people control of recommendation algorithms” — arguing that without proper oversight of the platform, YouTube will continue to be harmful by mindlessly exposing people to damaging and braindead content.

The problematic lack of transparency around so much of how YouTube functions can be picked up from other details in the report. For example, Mozilla found that around 9% of recommended regrets (or almost 200 videos) had since been taken down — for a variety of not always clear reasons (sometimes, presumably, after the content was reported and judged by YouTube to have violated its guidelines).

Collectively, just this subset of videos had had a total of 160M views prior to being removed for whatever reason.

In other findings, the research found that regretful views tend to perform well on the platform.

A particular stark metric is that reported regrets acquired a full 70% more views per day than other videos watched by the volunteers on the platform — lending weight to the argument that YouTube’s engagement-optimising algorithms disproportionately select for triggering/misinforming content more often than quality (thoughtful/informing) stuff simply because it brings in the clicks.

While that might be great for Google’s ad business, it’s clearly a net negative for democratic societies which value truthful information over nonsense; genuine public debate over artificial/amplified binaries; and constructive civic cohesion over divisive tribalism.

But without legally-enforced transparency requirements on ad platforms — and, most likely, regulatory oversight and enforcement that features audit powers — these tech giants are going to continue to be incentivized to turn a blind eye and cash in at society’s expense.

Mozilla’s report also underlines instances where YouTube’s algorithms are clearly driven by a logic that’s unrelated to the content itself — with a finding that in 43.6% of the cases where the researchers had data about the videos a participant had watched before a reported regret the recommendation was completely unrelated to the previous video.

The report gives examples of some of these logic-defying AI content pivots/leaps/pitfalls — such as a person watching videos about the U.S. military and then being recommended a misogynistic video entitled ‘Man humiliates feminist in viral video.’

In another instance, a person watched a video about software rights and was then recommended a video about gun rights. So two rights make yet another wrong YouTube recommendation right there.

In a third example, a person watched an Art Garfunkel music video and was then recommended a political video entitled ‘Trump Debate Moderator EXPOSED as having Deep Democrat Ties, Media Bias Reaches BREAKING Point.’

To which the only sane response is, umm what???

YouTube’s output in such instances seems — at best — some sort of ‘AI brain fart’.

A generous interpretation might be that the algorithm got stupidly confused. Albeit, in a number of the examples cited in the report, the confusion is leading YouTube users toward content with a right-leaning political bias. Which seems, well, curious.

Asked what she views as the most concerning findings, Mozilla’s Geurkink told TechCrunch: “One is how clearly misinformation emerged as a dominant problem on the platform. I think that’s something, based on our work talking to Mozilla supporters and people from all around the world, that is a really obvious thing that people are concerned about online. So to see that that is what is emerging as the biggest problem with the YouTube algorithm is really concerning to me.”

She also highlighted the problem of the recommendations being worse for non-English-speaking users as another major concern, suggesting that global inequalities in users’ experiences of platform impacts “doesn’t get enough attention” — even when such issues do get discussed.

Responding to Mozilla’s report in a statement, a Google spokesperson sent us this statement:

“The goal of our recommendation system is to connect viewers with content they love and on any given day, more than 200 million videos are recommended on the homepage alone. Over 80 billion pieces of information is used to help inform our systems, including survey responses from viewers on what they want to watch. We constantly work to improve the experience on YouTube and over the past year alone, we’ve launched over 30 different changes to reduce recommendations of harmful content. Thanks to this change, consumption of borderline content that comes from our recommendations is now significantly below 1%.”

Google also claimed it welcomes research into YouTube — and suggested it’s exploring options to bring in external researchers to study the platform, without offering anything concrete on that front.

At the same time, its response queried how Mozilla’s study defines ‘regrettable’ content — and went on to claim that its own user surveys generally show users are satisfied with the content that YouTube recommends.

In further non-quotable remarks, Google noted that earlier this year it started disclosing a ‘violative view rate‘ (VVR) metric for YouTube — disclosing for the first time the percentage of views on YouTube that comes from content that violates its policies.

The most recent VVR stands at 0.16-0.18% — which Google says means that out of every 10,000 views on YouTube, 16-18 come from violative content. It said that figure is down by more than 70% when compared to the same quarter of 2017 — crediting its investments in machine learning as largely being responsible for the drop.

However, as Geurkink noted, the VVR is of limited use without Google releasing more data to contextualize and quantify how far its AI was involved in accelerating views of content its own rules state shouldn’t be viewed on its platform. Without that key data the suspicion must be that the VVR is a nice bit of misdirection.

“What would be going further than [VVR] — and what would be really, really helpful — is understanding what’s the role that the recommendation algorithm plays in this?” Geurkink told us on that, adding: “That’s what is a complete blackbox still. In the absence of greater transparency [Google’s] claims of progress have to be taken with a grain of salt.”

Google also flagged a 2019 change it made to how YouTube’s recommender algorithm handles ‘borderline content’ — aka, content that doesn’t violate policies but falls into a problematic grey area — saying that that tweak had also resulted in a 70% drop in watchtime for this type of content.

Although the company confirmed this borderline category is a moveable feast — saying it factors in changing trends as well as context and also works with experts to determine what’s get classed as borderline — which makes the aforementioned percentage drop pretty meaningless since there’s no fixed baseline to measure against.

It’s notable that Google’s response to Mozilla’s report makes no mention of the poor experience reported by survey participants in non-English-speaking markets. And Geurkink suggested that, in general, many of the claimed mitigating measures YouTube applies are geographically limited — i.e. to English-speaking markets like the US and UK. (Or at least arrive in those markets first, before a slower rollout to other places.) 

A January 2019 tweak to reduce amplification of conspiracy theory content in the US was only expanded to the UK market months later — in August — for example.

“YouTube, for the past few years, have only been reporting on their progress of recommendations of harmful or borderline content in the US and in English-speaking markets,” she also said. “And there are very few people questioning that — what about the rest of the world? To me that is something that really deserves more attention and more scrutiny.”

We asked Google to confirm whether it had since applied the 2019 conspiracy theory related changes globally — and a spokeswoman told us that it had. But the much higher rate of reports made to Mozilla of — a yes broader measure of — ‘regrettable’ content being made in non-English-speaking markets remains notable.

And while there could be others factors at play, which might explain some of the disproportionately higher reporting, the finding may also suggest that, where YouTube’s negative impacts are concerned, Google directs greatest resource at markets and languages where its reputational risk and the capacity of its machine learning tech to automate content categorization are strongest.

Yet any such unequal response to AI risk obviously means leaving some users at greater risk of harm than others — adding another harmful dimension and layer of unfairness to what is already a multi-faceted, many-headed-hydra of a problem.

It’s yet another reason why leaving it up to powerful platforms to rate their own AIs, mark their own homework and counter genuine concerns with self-serving PR is for the birds.

(In additional filler background remarks it sent us, Google described itself as the first company in the industry to incorporate “authoritativeness” into its search and discovery algorithms — without explaining when exactly it claims to have done that or how it imagined it would be able to deliver on its stated mission of ‘organizing the world’s information and making it universally accessible and useful’ without considering the relative value of information sources… So color us baffled at that claim. Most likely it’s a clumsy attempt to throw disinformation shade at rivals.)

Returning to the regulation point, an EU proposal — the Digital Services Act — is set to introduce some transparency requirements on large digital platforms, as part of a wider package of accountability measures. And asked about this Geurkink described the DSA as “a promising avenue for greater transparency”.

But she suggested the legislation needs to go further to tackle recommender systems like the YouTube AI.

“I think that transparency around recommender systems specifically and also people having control over the input of their own data and then the output of recommendations is really important — and is a place where the DSA is currently a bit sparse, so I think that’s where we really need to dig in,” she told us.

One idea she voiced support for is having a “data access framework” baked into the law — to enable vetted researchers to get more of the information they need to study powerful AI technologies — i.e. rather than the law trying to come up with “a laundry list of all of the different pieces of transparency and information that should be applicable”, as she put it.

The EU also now has a draft AI regulation on the table. The legislative plan takes a risk-based approach to regulating certain applications of artificial intelligence. However it’s not clear whether YouTube’s recommender system would fall under one of the more closely regulated categories — or, as seems more likely (at least with the initial Commission proposal), fall entirely outside the scope of the planned law.

“An earlier draft of the proposal talked about systems that manipulate human behavior which is essentially what recommender systems are. And one could also argue that’s the goal of advertising at large, in some sense. So it was sort of difficult to understand exactly where recommender systems would fall into that,” noted Geurkink.

“There might be a nice harmony between some of the robust data access provisions in the DSA and the new AI regulation,” she added. “I think transparency is what it comes down to, so anything that can provide that kind of greater transparency is a good thing.

“YouTube could also just provide a lot of this… We’ve been working on this for years now and we haven’t seen them take any meaningful action on this front but it’s also, I think, something that we want to keep in mind — legislation can obviously take years. So even if a few of our recommendations were taken up [by Google] that would be a really big step in the right direction.”

07 Jul 2021

Real estate platform Casafari raises $15M to allow PE to buy single-family homes at scale

Just a Spotify used VC and PE backing to acquire the assets of the music industry so that we must now all rent our music via subscription, rather than own it for life, so a PropTech startup plans to follow a similar strategy for single-family homes.

Casafari, a real estate data platform in Europe based out of Lisbon, Portugal, has raised a $15 million Series A funding round led by Prudence Holdings in New York. But, crucially, it has also secured a $120 million “mandate” from Geneva-based private equity investors Stoneweg, among other PE players, in order to buy-to-let residential and commercial real estate. The startup already has operations in Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy.

Other investors include Armilar Venture Partners (the Portuguese VC behind unicorns Outsystems and Feedzai), HJM Holdings, 1Sharpe (founders of Roofstock), and FJ Labs (Fabrice Grinda, founder of OLX Group), as well as existing investor Lakestar.

Founded by Mila Suharev, Nils Henning, and Mitya Moskalchuk in 2018, Casafari is taking advantage of Europe’s often chaotic real estate data to achieve its goals, due to the lack of a unified Multiple Listings Service (“MLS”).

Casafari plans to aggregate, verify and distribute this data via its platform, hunting down single-family homes as an asset class for institutional investors.

According to Nils Henning, CEO, “CASAFARI has built a unique ecosystem, which connects brokers, developers, asset managers, and investors and enables sourcing, valuation, underwriting and deal collaboration on single units in all asset classes. We are very excited to represent important institutional clients like Stoneweg and others, in deploying their capital into fragmented acquisitions at scale, bringing more liquidity to the market and generating more transactions to the broker clients of our platform.”

Private investors are already using the platform. Since launching in 2018, Casafari has been used by Sotheby’s International Realty, Coldwell Banker, RE/MAX franchises, Savills, Fine & Country, Engel & Voelkers, Keller Williams, and important institutional investors and developers like Stoneweg, Kronos, Vanguard, and Vic Properties.

Mila Suharev, Casafari’s Co-CEO and CPO said: ”There are currently around 70 billion euros in dry powder in Europe that could be allocated in acquiring residential property in a buy to let strategy, and basically there’s no offer available. The property will be collected in portfolios, consisting of single units that pension funds, private equity real estate funds, want to build in Europe as they do in the US.”

What Casafari’s is doing is largely following the playbook of what Roofstock in the US did: an online marketplace for investing in leased single-family rental homes. Roofstock has raised $132.3 million to date.

07 Jul 2021

Real estate platform Casafari raises $15M to allow PE to buy single-family homes at scale

Just a Spotify used VC and PE backing to acquire the assets of the music industry so that we must now all rent our music via subscription, rather than own it for life, so a PropTech startup plans to follow a similar strategy for single-family homes.

Casafari, a real estate data platform in Europe based out of Lisbon, Portugal, has raised a $15 million Series A funding round led by Prudence Holdings in New York. But, crucially, it has also secured a $120 million “mandate” from Geneva-based private equity investors Stoneweg, among other PE players, in order to buy-to-let residential and commercial real estate. The startup already has operations in Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy.

Other investors include Armilar Venture Partners (the Portuguese VC behind unicorns Outsystems and Feedzai), HJM Holdings, 1Sharpe (founders of Roofstock), and FJ Labs (Fabrice Grinda, founder of OLX Group), as well as existing investor Lakestar.

Founded by Mila Suharev, Nils Henning, and Mitya Moskalchuk in 2018, Casafari is taking advantage of Europe’s often chaotic real estate data to achieve its goals, due to the lack of a unified Multiple Listings Service (“MLS”).

Casafari plans to aggregate, verify and distribute this data via its platform, hunting down single-family homes as an asset class for institutional investors.

According to Nils Henning, CEO, “CASAFARI has built a unique ecosystem, which connects brokers, developers, asset managers, and investors and enables sourcing, valuation, underwriting and deal collaboration on single units in all asset classes. We are very excited to represent important institutional clients like Stoneweg and others, in deploying their capital into fragmented acquisitions at scale, bringing more liquidity to the market and generating more transactions to the broker clients of our platform.”

Private investors are already using the platform. Since launching in 2018, Casafari has been used by Sotheby’s International Realty, Coldwell Banker, RE/MAX franchises, Savills, Fine & Country, Engel & Voelkers, Keller Williams, and important institutional investors and developers like Stoneweg, Kronos, Vanguard, and Vic Properties.

Mila Suharev, Casafari’s Co-CEO and CPO said: ”There are currently around 70 billion euros in dry powder in Europe that could be allocated in acquiring residential property in a buy to let strategy, and basically there’s no offer available. The property will be collected in portfolios, consisting of single units that pension funds, private equity real estate funds, want to build in Europe as they do in the US.”

What Casafari’s is doing is largely following the playbook of what Roofstock in the US did: an online marketplace for investing in leased single-family rental homes. Roofstock has raised $132.3 million to date.

07 Jul 2021

Real estate platform Casafari raises $15M to allow PE to buy single-family homes at scale

Just a Spotify used VC and PE backing to acquire the assets of the music industry so that we must now all rent our music via subscription, rather than own it for life, so a PropTech startup plans to follow a similar strategy for single-family homes.

Casafari, a real estate data platform in Europe based out of Lisbon, Portugal, has raised a $15 million Series A funding round led by Prudence Holdings in New York. But, crucially, it has also secured a $120 million “mandate” from Geneva-based private equity investors Stoneweg, among other PE players, in order to buy-to-let residential and commercial real estate. The startup already has operations in Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy.

Other investors include Armilar Venture Partners (the Portuguese VC behind unicorns Outsystems and Feedzai), HJM Holdings, 1Sharpe (founders of Roofstock), and FJ Labs (Fabrice Grinda, founder of OLX Group), as well as existing investor Lakestar.

Founded by Mila Suharev, Nils Henning, and Mitya Moskalchuk in 2018, Casafari is taking advantage of Europe’s often chaotic real estate data to achieve its goals, due to the lack of a unified Multiple Listings Service (“MLS”).

Casafari plans to aggregate, verify and distribute this data via its platform, hunting down single-family homes as an asset class for institutional investors.

According to Nils Henning, CEO, “CASAFARI has built a unique ecosystem, which connects brokers, developers, asset managers, and investors and enables sourcing, valuation, underwriting and deal collaboration on single units in all asset classes. We are very excited to represent important institutional clients like Stoneweg and others, in deploying their capital into fragmented acquisitions at scale, bringing more liquidity to the market and generating more transactions to the broker clients of our platform.”

Private investors are already using the platform. Since launching in 2018, Casafari has been used by Sotheby’s International Realty, Coldwell Banker, RE/MAX franchises, Savills, Fine & Country, Engel & Voelkers, Keller Williams, and important institutional investors and developers like Stoneweg, Kronos, Vanguard, and Vic Properties.

Mila Suharev, Casafari’s Co-CEO and CPO said: ”There are currently around 70 billion euros in dry powder in Europe that could be allocated in acquiring residential property in a buy to let strategy, and basically there’s no offer available. The property will be collected in portfolios, consisting of single units that pension funds, private equity real estate funds, want to build in Europe as they do in the US.”

What Casafari’s is doing is largely following the playbook of what Roofstock in the US did: an online marketplace for investing in leased single-family rental homes. Roofstock has raised $132.3 million to date.

07 Jul 2021

Dispatch from Bangalore

A startup founder, who hasn’t had much sleep all week, woke up on a recent Sunday to a phone call from his co-founder. A senior engineer was feeling burnt out and was contemplating leaving. For the founder, who had several calls scheduled with many high-profile Silicon Valley investors later in the day, talking this developer out of leaving the job quickly became the top agenda item for the rest of the weekend.

There’s a joke among many startup founders in Bangalore that hiring two to three engineers is currently more time-consuming and cumbersome than securing a fresh round of funding. Heavily-backed startups are increasingly paying big premiums to attract and retain talent, making it very challenging for their younger siblings to scale. And relying on recruiters is costly and still takes over a month to close a hire.

A good engineer with two to three years of experience with any recognizable startup expects $70,000 a year as salary, up from about $40,000 a year ago. A puzzled startup founder recently quizzed another peer in the industry how much a good QA engineer costs, and then answered the question himself: about $35,000, up from about $20,000.

Most difficult to poach are those who work at unicorn fintechs CRED and RazorPay, many startup founders said. Engineers from either of the firms expect as much as $150,000 a year, if not more — often four to five times the amount founders at early stage startups draw themselves.

The intense competition for talent has been prompted by newly turned unicorns increasing the pool on their captables for employee stock options, a concept that was nearly elusive just three years ago. Scores of U.S. and European startups are also aggressively hiring in India as remote working begins to take off.

India has produced a record 16 unicorns this year as Tiger Global, Falcon Edge, and SoftBank cut large size checks to the nation’s promising startups at a pace never witnessed before in the South Asian nation.

Indian startups have raised a record $10.46 billion in the first half of 2021, up from $4 billion during the same period last year, and $5.4 billion in the first half of 2019, data insight platform Tracxn told me. (In all of 2020, Indian startups raised $11.6 billion.)

The average size of a seed round in India was $1.1 million in the first half of 2021, up from $800,000 during the same period last year and $740,000 in 2019, per Tracxn. An average Series A check size this year has been $7.67 million, up from $4.30 million in the $4.30 million last year, and $5.92 million last year.

Even the early-stage startups are at the centre of attraction as virtually everyone is attempting to get in on a deal. Some second-time founders now have the confidence and networking to bypass Sequoia Capital India’s Surge accelerator program and Y Combinator and still gain access to some of the perks they offer.

Some aren’t engaging with funds at all for their seed financing rounds. Scores of startup founders from the past decade have accrued enough capital to write dozens of checks a year to early promising startups.

The abundance of dry powder in the market and the increased competition from some of the most reputable names in the industry have also changed the power dynamics between founders and investors. It’s becoming common for founders to negotiate from a place of strength to hold on the rights and preferential treatments from investors.

On a call recently, two founders discussed what many would consider a first-world dilemma: Dozens of investors had agreed to invest in them, but they no longer had so much stake to offer. So they strategize what stake to give whom and how to politely get others to reduce the size of their committed check size.

But some investors are worried that the music may stop soon.

Investors at several high-profile firms told me that many startups are taking checks from Tiger Global / Falcon / SoftBank too early in their journeys.

They argue that many of these young startups have raised funds at such a high valuation that if they are not able to hit the metrics they have told their existing lead investors, very few in the industry would be in a position to engage with them at a later stage.

“And even the likes of Tiger will not back you then,” one investor said, pointing to examples such as Bangalore-based Upstox, which raised from Tiger Global in the past, but later Tiger invested in its chief rival Groww. “Tiger is backing the race, not the horse,” another investor said.

A down cycle is a scenario many investors are preparing for. But it appears the music, so to speak, has only gotten louder in recent weeks.

Bangalore-based edtech Brightchamps is in advanced stages of talks to raise at over $500 million valuation, while Ola Electric has held talks to raise at over $3 billion valuation, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. Fidelity and Goldman Sachs have held talks to invest in a pre-IPO round at Paytm, one person said.

ShareChat is about to raise $150 million to $200 million from Temasek and others at a pre-money valuation of $2.8 billion. Prosus Ventures is in advanced stages of talks to lead an investment round in Upstox.

Sequoia is in talks to invest in Gitcoin and back Dive again, while Infra.Market, which was valued at $200 million in December last year and $1 billion earlier this year, is in talks to raise at over $2 billion valuation. Many other startups that turned unicorns this year are also in the market to finalize new rounds. BharatPe, Open, and Yap are in advanced stages of talks to finalize new rounds, TechCrunch has reported in recent weeks.

There are at least seven more $50 million+ rounds, and more than a dozen $20 million+ rounds that are expected to close within weeks. (I wish I could share the names but दोस्ती बनी रहे)

Elsewhere in Bangalore, there’s another sense of urgency. Several founders in India are starting crypto startups for customers across the world, but high-profile investors in India have largely stayed away from this category, in part because of India’s confusing stand about virtual currencies. Their absence has resulted in many of these startups secure funds from international funds and angels.

But things may change soon. Several venture funds including Sequoia Capital India, Lightspeed, Accel, WEH, and Kalaari are currently building their thesis for investments in crypto startups, people familiar with the matter told me.

07 Jul 2021

Renegade Partners rolls out its hotly anticipated debut fund with $100 million

Renegade Partners — a Bay Area-based venture firm cofounded by veteran VCs Renata Quintini and Roseanne Wincek — is taking the wraps off a $100 million debut venture fund that’s been capturing the imagination of the business press since almost its conception in late 2019.

The effort is interesting for a number of reasons, not least because of the backgrounds of both Quintini and Wincek, both of whom left powerhouse venture firms to join forces. Quintini, a trained attorney, was an investment manager with Stanford University’s endowment before being recruited into  Felicis Ventures, after which she was poached by Lux Capital. Across those firms, she worked closely with a number of high-flying startups, including the autonomous driving company  Cruise, the satellite startup Planet, and the clothing company Bonobos.

Wincek was meanwhile once set on nabbing a PhD at UC Berkeley, instead leaving the school with a master’s degree in biophysics to head to Stanford for her MBA. From there, it was on to Canaan as a principal, and from there, she headed to IVP, where she rose through the senior ranks to partner, investing across enterprise and consumer companies that include Glossier, Compass, MasterClass, and TransferWise.

It’s not a new trend, successful VCs who happen to be women leaving established firms to create their own outfits. Think Mary Meeker of Bond, Dayna Grayson of Construct Capital, and Beth Seidenberg of Westlake Village BioPartners, just to name a few. But unlike some of its predecessors, Renegade is isn’t limiting itself to playing a certain role in the venture universe. It isn’t bound to any sector. It isn’t marketing itself as an early-stage venture firm. What it is looking for is a fairly specific mix of traction, team, and market — a combination that it is finding in companies that are anywhere from their Series A to Series C stage.

A head data scientist from the insurance giant John Hancock is helping considerably, say the cofounders. So is a chief people officer with a powerful resume of her own (Uber, Zoom, Milo); principal Chloe Breider, a former IVP investor who worked closely with Wincek; and, as Renegade’s “decision scientist,” the former professional poker player and best-selling author Annie Duke.

We talked with Quintini and Wincek earlier today to learn more about what they have assembled — and how Renegade makes its mark in an industry that has never been more competitive. Excerpts from that chat, below, have been edited lightly for length.

TC: People would probably shiv someone to get a job at either firm where you worked. What drove you to leave, and who reached out to whom when it came time to partner?

RW: We first met when I was a Canaan and Renata was at Felicis, and back then, there weren’t many women in venture, so [women VCs were like] “Oh, there’s a new one, ‘Come meet everybody.'” Over the years, we looked at a lot of stuff together, and especially after I moved to IVP,  I was always bugging Renata about what was in her portfolio.

A few years ago, we were at one of those big, boozy dinners, with a bunch of people of our age at a bunch of firms. We were all having the conversation like, ‘Oh, if I had my own firm, I would do this, and I would do that,” and Renata and I were finishing each other’s sentences. And I remember going up to her and saying, “We should have this conversation for real but maybe with less wine. And that was Memorial Day of 2019.”

TC: Institutional investors sometimes worry about how well an emerging manager team will get along when they’re coming from different places. How did you address this?

RQ: We were good friends, I thought Roseanne was a phenomenal investor, but frankly, we didn’t know if we would be good cofounders and that’s the biggest risk, right? We did ask: how do we de-risk this? And we actually hired a coach for what we jokingly refer to as marriage counseling. But we did a lot of work around how we handle stress and what success looks like and what our values are. We also spent a lot of time in hotel rooms, and I can tell you that Roseanne is more of a morning person than I am.

TC: You were raising this in the middle of the pandemic. How did that impact fundraising?

RQ: We had our first close on Friday, March 13, the weekend before COVID [started shutting everything down]. The Grand Princess Cruise was coming into the Bay, and we’re on the phone with the LPs, and we didn’t know if people were to going to come through. I think if we didn’t have our track records to draw from, [the fund] wouldn’t have happened. We were very lucky that we were backed by institutional LPs — an Ivy League school, endowments, foundations, family offices. But we did not factor in COVID.

TC: I see language about the “supercritical stage” on Renegade’s site. What does that mean?

RW: That phrase is purposely vague, because we don’t think the stage definitions mean that much anymore. I started my career as a chemist way back when, and supercritical fluid is the state of matter that is neither liquid nor gas but both at the same time, and we feel like companies can be the same. There’s a product to market, there is some data, there’s early customer love and generally a sizable team, but they’re not the big growth companies yet, right? They’re not ready to raise a big growth round and pour fuel on the fire, and that’s how we think about [our ideal targets].

Our sweet spot is [a startup with] early revenue — from a quarter million dollars a year up to a million dollars a month — [that have] from 20 to 100 employees [and which are] raising rounds that are between $10 million and $50 million. Our first deal was actually a Series C deal, but we have Series A and Series B companies in the portfolio, too, that all sit in that sandbox.

RQ: There’s so much capital today that capital is cheap. But execution is expensive, so our focus is on preparing startups to execute as big, giant companies. It’s: How do I think about the organization as it scales? How do I think about the exact team that I need? How do I think about my option pool? About my founder role design? How do you manage your capital and leverage your board? Things are working so well for some founders that the wheels are falling off the bus; meanwhile, many are thinking about these same questions [that they never had time to sort out].

TC: If you aren’t sector or stage focused, how do you whittle down what you’re looking to fund?

RQ: One good thing about [the types of startups we’re backing] is that they were funded by somebody else before, so it’s a known universe, if you’re thinking about it from a data science perspective.

Beyond that, it’s applying the heuristics that Roseanne, myself, Chloe, Susan [Alban, Renage’s chief people officer], have had from a decade plus of investing and working at outlier companies. It’s not just a number. It’s the quality of revenue. It’s a combination of other breadcrumbs that the companies put out there in terms of who have they hired and what are customers thinking of their product, and is this company building a system of record, and what is the velocity of adoption. Technology alone can’t do [the work].

TC: There’s so much money sloshing around right now. In terms of the advice you’re giving your portfolio companies, what do you tell them about how to react when someone knocks on the door and offers more funding right after they’ve closed a round?

RQ: There are so many dimensions here.  First, you should look at it from your company’s needs. You got to deploy this capital, and you got to provide a return on this capital, and nothing is free, so the more money you raise, the higher the valuation you receive, it catches up to you in the next round because you got to clear that watermark.

[We also tell them to ask themselves] do you have investments to make? Do you have team to hire? Some founders we’ve talked with have said, ‘I’m not going to raise any more because I cannot go faster or deploy more than my model is already supporting.  I’m actually going to execute more and then take more [capital] down the road when I’m going to get more credit for the stuff that I built, and the ROI is going to be better.’

The other piece, too, is when you’re in a very competitive environment, you have to look at what’s happening around you. Sometimes if your competitors are raising and pushing the market forward, it may be a reason to think [about raising more than you’d planned] because maybe they can out-hire you or they can outspend you in certain areas and can generate more traction. So you can’t look at things in absolute terms. At the same time, there is no free money and a lot of founders unwittingly create more problems for themselves [by not thinking through what that next check means].

TC: People see a women-led venture team and wonder how focused you will be on women-led startups.

RQ: I think we’re great investors who happen to be female. Our primary focus is on diversity of experience and thoughts. Gender is  just one of the lenses, and diversity is one of the core values of organization because we believe that provides better returns.

RW: One thing that’s been really fun and validating and inspiring about all this is the people who do come out of the woodwork who are so excited [about Renegade], because representation matters. At the end of the day, this is how this changes. We chip away at this and soon, you won’t ask this question anymore because it won’t be topical. That’s the goal.

TC: Do you feel that the diversity matters for LPs? Do you think that diversity is going to be codified in the way that LPs are looking at investing in funds?

RQ: Some lead with it. Others say, ‘Let me look at past returns. They look at lagging indicators.’ Today, founders are picking investors who reflect their values, who they’re proud to be associated with — people who have their same energy people and will go to bat for them and with them. These are the returns of the future, regardless of whatever Cambridge tells you today about investments that were made in the past. Leading LPs know this.